代际流动约束下生育率与收入不平等关系的国际检验

发布时间：2018-03-18 19:53

本文选题：收入不平等　切入点：代际收入流动　出处：《财经研究》2017年05期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：收入不平等问题和人口生育率过低问题是当下中国面临的两大难题,但目前理论界关于人口因素与收入不平等关系的研究,很少从生育率视角来考察以及考虑代际收入流动在其中的作用。文章从理论与经验两个方面来考察生育率对收入不平等的影响,理论模型表明:在关于代际收入流动的假设下,一个经济体中生育率的提高会使穷人比重提高,进而拉大收入不平等。进一步地,文章利用1970-2011年76个国家(地区)面板数据的经验研究发现:(1)总和生育率的提高会拉大收入不平等,如果每个妇女平均多生育一个孩子,将会使基尼系数增加0.025;(2)以出生率作为总和生育率替代指标的实证结果与基准结果基本一致,这说明不同生育率测算指标高度相关且可相互替代;(3)对于代际收入流动弹性越高、收入水平越低或生育率越高的国家(地区),其生育率提高对收入不平等的拉大作用越大。文章关于生育率对收入不平等影响的作用机制和异质性特征的考察,对于我国如何在实施"全面二孩"政策下寻求应对严峻的收入分配问题之策提供了国际经验和启示。
[Abstract]:Income inequality and low fertility rate are two major problems facing China. However, the current theoretical research on the relationship between population factors and income inequality, The effects of intergenerational income flow on income inequality are rarely examined from the perspective of fertility and from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. Theoretical models show that: under the hypothesis of intergenerational income flow, An increase in fertility in an economy increases the proportion of the poor, which in turn increases income inequality. Using empirical data from 76 countries (regions) from 1970 to 2011, the article found that an increase in total fertility increases income inequality, if on average a woman has one more child. It will increase the Gini coefficient by 0.025%) the empirical results of using birth rate as a substitute indicator for total fertility are basically consistent with the results of the benchmark, which indicates that different fertility indicators are highly correlated and can be substituted for each other.) the higher the elasticity of income flow between generations, the higher the elasticity of income flows between generations. The lower the income level or the higher the fertility rate, the greater the contribution of fertility increase to income inequality. This paper examines the mechanism and heterogeneity of the effect of fertility on income inequality. It provides international experience and enlightenment on how to deal with the severe problem of income distribution under the policy of "comprehensive two-child" in China.
【作者单位】：厦门大学王亚南经济研究院;华南师范大学经济与管理学院;华南师范大学华南市场经济研究中心;华侨大学经济与金融学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金青年项目(16CRK017)
【分类号】：F124.7;C924.2

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