中国人口年龄结构对碳排放的影响

发布时间：2018-03-20 12:34

本文选题：人口年龄结构　切入点：碳排放　出处：《资源科学》2015年12期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：近年来,将人口年龄结构作为温室气体排放驱动因素的研究很少,已有的研究也只是将人口年龄做简单分类,由此导致对年龄结构影响碳排放的考察不够深入和具体。本文细化了人口年龄结构,将人口年龄划分为0~14岁、15~29岁、30~44岁、45~59岁和60岁及以上五个组别,并基于扩展的随机STIRPAT模型考察了人口年龄结构对碳排放的影响,以达到更好地解释人口年龄结构对中国碳排放影响机制的目的。研究结果表明,人口年龄结构对碳排放影响显著。不同年龄人口所占比重不同,对碳排放影响不同。其中,30~44岁人口对碳排放的影响最大,15~29岁人口的影响不显著,60岁及以上人口比重对碳排放的影响为负。分析还表明,随着中国老龄化进程的加快,无论从生产还是消费渠道看,未来中国人口年龄结构变化都有减缓碳排放加速的可能。本文最后提出了从消费渠道降低碳排放的对策建议。
[Abstract]:In recent years, little research has been done on the age structure of the population as a driver of greenhouse gas emissions, and existing studies have simply classified the age of the population. As a result, the effect of age structure on carbon emissions is not deep enough and specific. In this paper, the age structure of the population is refined, and the population age is divided into five groups: 0 ~ 14 years old, 1529 years old, 30 ~ 44 years old, 45 ~ 59 years old and 60 years old and above. Based on the extended stochastic STIRPAT model, the effects of population age structure on carbon emissions are investigated in order to better explain the mechanism of population age structure on carbon emissions in China. The age structure of the population has a significant impact on carbon emissions. The impact on carbon emissions is different. The impact of population aged 30 or 44 on carbon emissions is not significant. The impact of the proportion of people aged 60 years and over on carbon emissions is negative. The analysis also shows that with the acceleration of the aging process in China, In terms of both production and consumption channels, it is possible to slow down the acceleration of carbon emissions in the future when the age structure of China's population changes. Finally, this paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions for reducing carbon emissions from consumption channels.
【作者单位】：东北财经大学统计学院;大连市环境科学设计研究院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重大项目(14ZDB130);国家社会科学基金一般项目(11BRK005) 辽宁省社科基金(L15BJY017)
【分类号】：C924.2;X24

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