珠江三角洲人口红利与经济增长实证研究

发布时间：2018-03-22 15:39

本文选题：人口红利　切入点：劳动年龄人口比重　出处：《华南理工大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：人口红利是人口转变过程中形成的人口年龄结构优势，最主要的特征是劳动年龄人口数量大、比重高，为经济发展提供了充分的潜在劳动供给。改革开放以来，珠江三角洲经历了人口自然增长的变化过程，再加上吸纳了大量外来劳动年龄务工人员，形成了丰富的人口红利。因此，如何科学认识珠三角地区人口数量、人口年龄结构的变化过程和特征，以及人口红利与社会经济发展的关系，成为重要且有意义的课题。本文基于珠三角及各地市常住劳动年龄人口比重与户籍劳动年龄人口比重数据，研究珠三角地区人口红利的变化趋势，并通过对比两者差距，分析外来人口红利对常住人口红利的影响，对比结果显示深圳、佛山和东莞的外来人口红利最大。同时，运用柯布道格拉斯生产函数，通过对劳动投入进行分解，，单独区分出人口红利，从投入与产出的角度对人口红利与经济增长进行了实证分析，回归结果表明：过去十年中，常住人口红利对经济的贡献率为7.5%；结合珠三角外来人口数量大、劳动年龄人口比重及劳动年龄人口参与率高的特点，分析外来劳动年龄人口对经济发展的影响，结果显示外来劳动年龄人口数的贡献率为2.8%。本研究的主要贡献在于：一是根据人口普查和抽查数据，对非普查和抽查年份的人口年龄结构缺省数据进行了填补，丰富和完善了珠三角地区人口年龄结构数据。二是通过同时分析常住人口红利和户籍人口红利，探究了外来人口红利对珠三角人口红利的影响。三是通过实证分析，动态量化人口红利对经济增长率的贡献大小，为珠三角人口红利的利用提供了参考和依据。
[Abstract]:Population dividend is the advantage of population age structure formed in the process of population transformation. The most important characteristic is the large number and high proportion of working-age population, which provides sufficient potential labor supply for economic development. Since the reform and opening up to the outside world, The Pearl River Delta has experienced a process of natural population growth, coupled with the absorption of a large number of migrant workers of working age, which has resulted in a rich population dividend. Therefore, how to scientifically understand the population of the Pearl River Delta region, The changing process and characteristics of population age structure and the relationship between demographic dividend and social and economic development have become important and meaningful topics. Based on the data of permanent residence age population and household registration age population in the Pearl River Delta and other cities, this paper studies the changing trend of the population dividend in the Pearl River Delta region, and compares the difference between the two. This paper analyzes the effect of the dividend of foreign population on the dividend of resident population. The results show that the dividend of foreign population in Shenzhen, Foshan and Dongguan is the largest. At the same time, by using Cobb Douglas production function, the labor input is decomposed. By distinguishing the demographic dividend separately, the paper makes an empirical analysis of the demographic dividend and economic growth from the point of view of input and output. The regression results show that in the past decade, The contribution rate of resident population dividend to economy is 7.5%, combining with the characteristics of large number of foreign population, high proportion of working-age population and high participation rate of working-age population in the Pearl River Delta, this paper analyzes the influence of migrant working-age population on economic development. The results showed that the contribution rate of the foreign working-age population was 2.8%. The main contributions of this study are as follows: first, the default data on the age structure of the population in non-census and sample years are filled based on census and sample data. It enriches and perfects the age structure data of the population in the Pearl River Delta region. Secondly, by analyzing the dividend of resident population and resident population at the same time, the paper probes into the influence of the dividend of foreign population on the demographic dividend of Pearl River Delta. The dynamic quantification of the contribution of population dividend to the economic growth rate provides a reference and basis for the utilization of population dividend in the Pearl River Delta.
【学位授予单位】：华南理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F127;C924.2;F224

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