中国人口老龄化空间分布特征及与经济发展的同步性研究
发布时间：2018-03-23 12:23
本文选题：人口老龄化 切入点：老少比 出处：《华东师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》2014年03期
【摘要】：根据我国1990年、2000年和2010年三次人口普查的数据,分析我国人口老龄化现状以及老龄化趋势和经济发展趋势之间的关系,并进一步采用空间自相关模型和新构的经济自相关模型,用全局Moran's I指数刻画全局自相关,用局部Moran指数和局部G系数刻画局部自相关,分别探讨中国各区域老龄化的空间相关性和经济相关性,其结论表明,中国的人口老龄化存在正的空间相关性和经济相关性,并且老少比这一指标对经济水平的依赖性大于对空间位置的依赖性,即老龄化的地区差异中经济发展水平较空间位置的影响更甚。因此,应根据经济发展水平进行区分,因地制宜地制定老龄化的应对策略。
[Abstract]:Based on the data of three censuses in China in 1990, 2000 and 2010, the present situation of population aging and the relationship between the trend of aging and the trend of economic development in China are analyzed, and the spatial autocorrelation model and the newly constructed economic autocorrelation model are further adopted. The global autocorrelation is characterized by the global Moran's I index, and the local autocorrelation is described by the local Moran index and the local G coefficient. The spatial and economic correlations of aging in various regions of China are discussed respectively. China's aging population has positive spatial and economic correlations, and older and younger people are more dependent on economic level than on spatial location. That is, the economic development level is more important than the spatial position in the regional difference of aging. Therefore, it is necessary to distinguish according to the level of economic development and formulate countermeasures for aging according to local conditions.
【作者单位】： 华东师范大学金融与统计学院;
【基金】：国家社科基金项目(12CRK003) 上海市哲学社会科学规划项目(2011EJB001)的阶段性成果
【分类号】：C924.24;F124
【参考文献】
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3 g娣，
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