1996-2011年南非人口空间分布格局与演变特征

发布时间：2018-03-26 12:33

本文选题：人口分布　切入点：空间格局　出处：《地理科学进展》2013年07期

【摘要】：南非是中国在非洲的最大投资目的地与经贸合作伙伴,特别在基础设施建设方面发展迅速。南非人口空间分布研究对开展中南合作具有重要意义。本文通过收集整理南非历年来的全国人口普查资料统计数据,运用空间自相关模型、不均衡指数、人口重心模型和偏移—分享模型,分析了南非人口的空间分布格局和演变特征。研究结果表明,南非人口分布具有显著的"东高西低"的空间格局,呈现出以工业化程度较高的大都市区和港口城市为中心的"多核心"集聚的分布特征;空间自相关分析得出人口高集聚区主要分布在大都市区和沿海港口城市,低密度集聚区主要集中分布在中西部地区;从变化趋势上来看,1996-2011年间人口分布不平衡趋势不断加强,人口重心向西北方向移动;偏移—分享分析表明,南非人口增长速度先后经历了从1996-2001年快速增长到2001-2007年缓慢增长,再到2007-2011年高速增长的"高—低—高"增长阶段;省域层面上看,豪登省和西开普省一直是南非人口集聚较强地区。
[Abstract]:South Africa is Chinese in Africa's largest investment destination and trade partners, especially in the rapid development of infrastructure construction in South Africa. The population spatial distribution is of great significance to carry out the South cooperation. By collecting the data of national census statistics in South Africa over the years, by using the spatial autocorrelation model, disequilibrium index, population gravity model and the offset - sharing model, analyzes the distribution pattern and evolution characteristics of the South African population space. The results show that the distribution of population in South Africa has "East High and west low" spatial pattern, which shows the high degree of industrialization of the metropolitan area and the port city as the center of the "core" of the distribution characteristics of spatial agglomeration; correlation analysis of high population agglomeration areas are mainly distributed in the metropolitan area and the coastal port city, the low density area mainly distributed in Western region; From the trend point of view, 1996-2011 years, the population distribution is not balanced the growing trend, the population center to move northwest; offset - share analysis shows that the growth rate of population in South Africa has experienced rapid growth from 1996-2001 years to 2001-2007 years of slow growth, to 2007-2011 years of rapid growth in the "high low high" growth stage; provincial level, Gauteng and Western Cape province has been a strong agglomeration in South African population.

【作者单位】：中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所;中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室;中国科学院大学;中国人民大学经济学院;
【基金】：中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所“一三五”战略科技计划项目(2012SJ002)
【分类号】：C924.478

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