中国省际城乡人口流动成因的研究——基于第六次人口普查数据

发布时间：2018-03-26 13:11

本文选题：省际人口迁移　切入点：迁移模式　出处：《人口与发展》2017年03期

【摘要】：运用2010年第六次人口普查数据,结合重力模型、推拉理论,以及我国除港澳台外31个省市区中每个省市区对应其余30个省市区的930个样本的实际特征,细化分析在不同的人口迁移模式下,影响我国省际城乡人口流动的共性和特性因素。在省际农村到城市、农村到农村、城市到城市、以及城市到农村四种迁移模式中,农村到城市依然是最主要的迁移模式。实证分析结果显示,在四种不同迁移模式下,经济因素、人口因素、地理因素是影响人口流动的共性因素。其中,迁出省份的人口推力作用在农村迁往城市的模式中表现得最大,迁入省份的人口拉力作用则在城市迁往城市的模式中表现得最大,而人口迁移数量对距离的弹性在农村迁往农村的模式中最高,同时教育差距在除了农村到农村模式之外的其它三种模式中都表现出与人口迁移量显著正相关的关系。
[Abstract]:Using the data of the sixth census in 2010, combined with the gravity model, the push-pull theory and the actual characteristics of 930 samples of the other 30 provinces, municipalities and cities in China except Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan. Detailed analysis is made on the commonness and characteristics of the interprovincial rural-urban population mobility in China under different population migration modes. In the interprovincial rural-to-urban, rural-to-rural, urban-urban, and urban-rural migration models, The empirical analysis shows that under the four different migration patterns, economic factors, population factors and geographical factors are the common factors affecting population mobility. The population thrust effect of moving out provinces is the largest in the mode of rural migration to cities, while the population pull effect of moving provinces is the largest in the mode of urban migration. The elasticity of population migration to distance is the highest in the model of rural migration, and the education gap shows a significant positive correlation with the population migration in the other three models except the rural to rural model.
【作者单位】：湖南大学经济管理研究中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“人口流动对区域间经济发展不平衡的影响作用分析”(71673079)的阶段性研究成果
【分类号】：C924.25

【共引文献】