我国人口老龄化发展趋势的量化分析

发布时间：2018-03-28 11:46

本文选题：中国　切入点：区域　出处：《吉林大学》2011年硕士论文

【摘要】：21世纪是全球性人口老龄化的世纪,伴随着全球性人口老龄化的到来,人口老龄化正广泛而深刻地影响着人类经济社会生活的各个方面,日益成为世界各国政府高度关注的重大人口问题。根据联合国人口司2010年发布的《世界人口老龄化(2009)》报告(World Population Aging 2009)显示,从1950年到2009年,全球范围内60岁以上和65岁以上人口所占比例已经分别从8%和5%上升至11%和近8%。人口老龄化的问题在我国同样十分突出。首先,我国的老年人口总数很多,1996年我国65岁及以上的老年人口总数已达8600万,而到了2008年这一数字已经达到10956万人了；其次,我国人口老龄化的发展速度非常快。我国大约用了不到20年的时间就完成了大多数西方国家要经过50-80年的时间从人口成年型转变为老年型的过程。最后,我国目前的经济水平则仍处于发展中国家的阶段,而人口老龄化的发展速度已经大大超过了经济发展的速度,并且已经超过西方发达国家的程度,“未富先老”的现实状况对我国的社会养老保障体系提出了巨大的挑战,也给现代化建设带来沉重的压力。因此,准确预测我国未来人口老龄化的发展趋势,可以为我国经济和社会发展的决策提供科学的参考依据,对于加速推进我国现代化建设有着极为重要的现实意义。本文的研究内容即我国人口老龄化的现状与发展趋势。由于我国人口老龄化问题还存在区域差异性,因此,要想深入、全面、准确地预测我国未来人口老龄化的发展趋势,就必须从整体与区域两个角度去分析。为此,本文将采用量化分析的方法,从整体和区域两个层面去分析和研究我国人口老龄化的现状与发展趋势。全文可概括分为引言、现状、预测分析、对策四大部分。其中引言部分为第第二章,将详细介绍本文研究的背景、目的、意义、本文结构、以及在研究过程中涉及的概念的定义、数据的来源和研究的方法等。第三章为我国老年人口发展阶段及老龄化现状分析,在这一章中,首先从1949年建国至2008年对我国老年人口的发展历程做一个回顾,分为四个阶段。具体分为第一阶段：老年人口发展的恢复期,第二阶段：老年人口发展的过渡期,第三阶段：老年人口发展的发展期,第四阶段：老年人口发展的加速期。然后,根据我国人口统计年鉴公布的数据,我国在2000年正式进入老龄化社会,因此将从2000年开始,从整体和分区域两个角度分析我国人口老龄化的现状,并根据分析的结果总结现阶段我国人口老龄化的特点。第四章为我国人口老龄化发展趋势的预测,是本文的重点。在这一章中,将根据2000年第五次人口普查的数据,利用PEOPLE软件对我国未来人口老龄化的发展趋势进行预测,并对预测得出的结果进行分析。第五章为我国人口老龄化发展趋势的区域性量化分析,也是本文的重点。在这一章中,将根据第三章中我国区域人口老龄化的现状,利用SPSS软件,对全国31个省市地区的老龄化状况进行聚类分析,在聚类的结果上再分区域选取具有代表性的省市地区进行预测,并对预测结果进行分析。最后,第六章为本文的对策部分,将综合本文的预测分析结果给出相应的对策建议。
[Abstract]:Twenty-first Century is the global population aging century, along with the global population aging, the aging of the population has a broad and profound impact on all aspects of human economic and social life, has increasingly become a major population concern of governments around the world. According to the UN Population Division in 2010 released "world population aging (2009) > (World Population Aging 2009) report shows that from 1950 to 2009, accounting for worldwide over 60 years and the proportion of the population over 65 has respectively from 8% and 5% to 11% and nearly 8%. of the population aging problem in China is also very prominent. First of all, a lot of elderly population in our country. In 1996 China's 65 years of age and older population has reached 86 million, and by 2008 this figure had already reached 109 million 560 thousand; secondly, the development speed of China's aging population of our country about very quickly. In less than 20 years to complete most of the western countries after 50-80 years from the population of adult type into old age. Finally, our current economic level is still in the stage of developing countries, and the development speed of the aging of the population has greatly exceeded the speed of economic development, and has more than the western developed countries, "challenges the reality not rich first old" on China's social security system, but also to the construction of modernization has brought heavy pressure. Therefore, the accurate prediction of China's future development trend of population aging, can provide scientific reference for our country the economic and social development decision-making, to accelerate the modernization of our country has very important practical significance.
The content of this study is the aging of China's population situation and development trend. Due to the existence of regional differences, China's aging population problem therefore, to in-depth, comprehensive, accurately predict the future development trend of China's aging population, it is necessary to analyze from two angles of the whole and area. Therefore, this paper will use the method of quantitative analysis, to analyze from two aspects and the whole region and the study of China's aging population situation and development trend. This paper can be broadly divided into the introduction, the status quo, prediction analysis, countermeasures of four parts. The first part of the introduction of the
The second chapter introduces the research background, purpose, significance, the paper structure, and defines the concepts involved in the research process, data sources and research methods. The third chapter is the analysis of the development stage of China's aging population and aging status, in this chapter, first from 1949 to 1949 in 2008 a review on the development process of China's elderly population, divided into four stages. The first stage is divided into: the development of the elderly population during the recovery period, the second stage: the transition period, the development of the elderly population in third stages: the period of development, the development of the elderly population in fourth stages: the acceleration of the development of the elderly population then. According to the China population statistics yearbook, published data, China officially entered the aging society in 2000, so from the beginning of 2000, the analysis of China's aging population is two from the perspective of the overall and sub domain, according to the The analysis results of China's aging population characteristics at this stage. The fourth chapter is the prediction of China's aging population development trend, is the focus of this paper. In this chapter, according to the 2000 fifth census data, predict China's future population aging development trend by using PEOPLE software. And the prediction results were analyzed. The fifth chapter is the quantitative analysis of regional development trend of China's aging population, but also the focus of this article. In this chapter, the third chapter will be based on the status quo of regional population ageing in China, using SPSS software, clustering analysis on the aging status of the 31 in the provinces and regions, clustering results into regional representative provinces and regions were predicted, and the prediction results are analyzed. Finally, the sixth chapter is the countermeasures part of this paper, the analysis results of this paper will be comprehensive prediction Give the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.

【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2011
【分类号】：C924.24

【引证文献】