我国低生育水平下的人口红利研究

发布时间：2018-03-31 04:14

本文选题：人口红利　切入点：第一人口红利　出处：《西南财经大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：我国实施计划生育以来,逐渐实现了人口结构转变为两头低、中间高,即总人口中劳动力人口比重高,少儿、老人的比重较低。这被许多学者形容为人口红利。由于中国具有丰富的劳动力资源,而且结构上表现出年轻劳动.力非常丰富,随着市场经济的不断发展,劳动力的转移为我国发展劳动力密集型产业提供了很好的支撑,同时也为经济的高速增长做出了巨大的贡献。也有学者把这种结构优势称之为第一人口红利。如今老龄化以及民工荒的问题又开始凸现,一些学者认为人口红利即将结束,将导致中国经济增长的速度可能会慢下来,到底人口红利对经济发展影响有多大,以及如何认识人口红利这一概念,这是需要作进一步的探讨的。然而如果我们继续深究的话就会发现,为经济增长做出贡献的人口因素绝不只是简单的人口结构优势,人口素质的不断提高以及人力资本的提升不但在过去而且在未来都是更加重要的另一个人口因素。笔者将其归为第二人口红利。过去几十年,中国经济获得了快速的发展,但是并没有对这一重要因素引起必要的重视。但是随着我国持续的低生育水平,劳动力供给将减少,人口老龄化将愈加明显,这无疑对于还没有进入中等发达国家水平的中国而言是一个巨大的挑战。 “土地是财富之母,劳动是财富之父。”古典经济学家穆勒的这一名言对于今天我们理解中国经济的快速增长仍然具有非常重要的意义。人口红利在根本上体现为劳动的创造性,这才是财富的源泉,因此第二人口红利所体现出来的巨大的创造性才是解决问题的关键。随着中国人口的转变,人口结构和质量都在发生巨大的变化,怎么样解决人口与经济可持续发展的问题,不仅是科学发展观的要求,也是时代赋予我们的历史使命。本文的主要内容分为以下几个方面：第一部分绪论。主要介绍了文章选题的背景以及意义。以及文章的思路和框架。基于我国目前的人口状况和未来的发展趋势,我国即将面临未富先老的挑战,通过对人口红利的深度挖掘,笔者认为有利于应对这一挑战。第二部分文献综述。介绍了当前人口红利相关研究,包括两个人口红利的概念定义以及存在的争议,人口红利的度量及存在的问题,人口红利对经济的影响及相关的研究展望。第三部分是人口红利的相关理论,着重分析了我国的人口红利与经济增长的理论关系。首先把人口红利分解为两个人口红利——第一人口红利和第二入口红利,着重介绍了第二人口红利的相关内容。接下来分析人口红利在促进经济增长中的作用,除了人口结构方面的第一人口红利对经济增长有利之外,重点分析了第二人口红利对经济发展的促进作用。最后分析了阻碍了我国人口红利的最大化的因素,主要有就业不足,人口素质偏低,以及制度方面的原因。第四部分则主要讨论我国的人口红利与经济可持续发展的关系问题。回答了人口红利到底能够持续多久的问题。其中难以回避的一个重点问题是劳动力供给,人口红利,刘易斯转折点与经济增长。分析了人口红利与经济增长的关系,人口红利与刘易斯转折点的关系,以及这二者对中国未来经济增长的影响。第五部分讨论老龄化下的中国人口红利。一方面是老龄化给未来的可持续发展带来不利的影响,人口形势给我们带来了巨大的挑战,包括未富先老,养老负担的加剧,劳动力供需矛盾愈加突出等,另一方面是老龄化背景下第二人口红利依然存在,并分析了其来源。主要来源有人口素质的提高,人力资本存量的上升,劳动力配置效率的提高,以及老龄化带来的储蓄的增加,有可能转化为资本或投资,从而促进经济增长。第六部分是政策建议以及结语。在综合上述分析的情况下,笔者提出了五大建议来开发第二人口红利促进经济社会可持续发展。具体地有：调整当前的计划生育政策,使人口转变更加平稳；努力扩大就业；积极参加全球化,利用全球的人力资源；实施积极的老龄化政策,合理利用老年人力资源；最为重要的还是提高人口素质,提升人力资本存量。本文的主要贡献在于对人口红利尤其是第二人口红利进行了更深的拓展,结合发展经济学以及人力资本理论,深化了对这一概念的内涵,具体体现在： 1,诠释了两个人口红利的概念及其联系与区别。把两个红利都纳入发展经济学的框架,分析了其对经济增长的贡献。 2,对于第二个人口红利有了更深的认识,并融入了发展经济学中人口与经济增长的分析,对我国未来经济的发展有了人口经济学的新认识。较为全面的分析了其来源以及制约其发挥作用的因素。
[Abstract]:With the development of market economy , the transfer of labor force has provided great support to the development of labor - intensive industries in our country , and also has made great contributions to the high - speed growth of economy .

The problem of aging and the shortage of people is beginning to highlight , some scholars think that the demographic dividend is about to end , which will slow down the growth of China ' s economy , how big the demographic dividend has on the economic development , and how to recognize the concept of demographic dividend , which needs to be further explored .

However , if we continue to study deeply , demographic factors that contribute to economic growth are by no means simple demographic advantages , the growing population quality and the promotion of human capital not only in the past but also in the future .

" The land is the mother of wealth and the work is the father of wealth . " Classical economist Mu - ler ' s famous remark is very important for us to understand the rapid growth of China ' s economy today . Population dividend is the source of wealth , so the huge creativity embodied in the second demographic dividend is the key to solving the problem . With the transformation of China ' s population , population structure and quality have changed greatly , how to solve the problem of population and economic sustainable development is not only the requirement of the scientific development view , but also the historical mission entrusted to us in the times .

The main contents of this paper are as follows :

The first part introduces the background and significance of the article selection . Based on the present situation of the population and the development trend of the future , China is facing the challenge of not being rich first , through the deep excavation of the demographic dividend , the author thinks it is beneficial to deal with this challenge .

In the second part of literature review , the current demographic dividend - related research , including the definition of the concept of two demographic dividend and the problems existing , the measure and the problems of the demographic dividend , the influence of the demographic dividend on the economy and the related research prospect are introduced .

The third part is the relevant theories of demographic dividend , and focuses on the analysis of the theoretical relationship between the demographic dividend and economic growth in China .

The fourth part mainly discusses the relationship between China ' s demographic dividend and economic sustainable development . One of the key problems which is difficult to avoid is labor supply , demographic dividend , Lewis turning point and economic growth . The relationship between demographic dividend and economic growth , the relationship between demographic dividend and Lewis turning point , and the impact of both on China ' s future economic growth are analyzed .

The fifth part discusses China ' s demographic dividend under aging . On the one hand , the aging gives us a great challenge to the sustainable development of the future . The demographic situation brings us great challenges , including the increase of the population quality , the increase of the human capital stock , the improvement of the efficiency of the labor force allocation and the increase of the savings brought by the aging , which may be converted into capital or investment , thereby promoting economic growth .

The sixth part is policy suggestion and conclusion . In the case of comprehensive analysis , the author put forward five suggestions to develop the second demographic dividend to promote the sustainable development of economy and society .
( a ) Efforts to expand employment ;
Active participation in globalization and the use of global human resources ;
Implement active ageing policies and make rational use of the resources of older persons ;
The most important is to improve the quality of the population and improve the human capital stock .

The main contribution of this paper lies in the deeper expansion of the demographic dividend , especially the second demographic dividend , combining the development economics and the human capital theory , deepening the connotation of this concept , which is embodied in :

1 . The concept of two demographic dividend and its relation and difference are interpreted . Both dividends are integrated into the framework of development economics , and its contribution to economic growth is analyzed .

2 . There is a deeper understanding of the second demographic dividend and the analysis of population and economic growth in the development economics , which has a new understanding of population economics for the future economic development of our country .

【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：C924.2

【参考文献】