人口老龄化对经济可持续发展的影响研究

发布时间：2018-04-01 01:30

本文选题：人口老龄化　切入点：劳动力供给　出处：《上海工程技术大学》2011年硕士论文

【摘要】：人口老龄化是社会经济发展的必然趋势，我国在2000年底跨进老年型社会的门槛，65岁老年人口占到了总人口数的6.96%，并且这一比重表现出不断增大的趋势。老龄化带来的一系列影响已经渐渐的表现出来，例如劳动力人口比重下降、养老负担加重、老年消费需求增加、产业结构不合理等。能否处理好老龄化带来的一系列问题，将关系到经济发展的可持续性。本文以社会保障、人口学和经济学理论为基础，从研究人口老龄化与经济可持续发展关系入手，通过对人口老龄化的现状和未来趋势的分析，从宏观和微观层面分别探讨了人口老龄化对经济发展的影响。本文的研究主要分为以下几个部分。第一部分，利用2000年人口普查数据对我国2001-2050年的人口年龄结构进行了预测，分析了我国人口老龄化的特点以及各个年龄阶段的人口比重变化。并根据人口与可持续发展的理论，结合人口老龄化的影响分析了人口老龄化与经济可持续发展的关系。结论表明未来老龄化和高龄化会继续加大，人口老龄化直接或间接的影响着经济的发展。第二部分，在对我国当前劳动力供给情况分析的基础上，结合2000-2050年预测数据，分析我国未来劳动力供给是否会出现不足。得出人口老龄化不仅对劳动力供给的数量造成影响，而且对劳动力供给的质量会造成影响。如果保持当前经济社会条件不变未来很可能会出现劳动力不足。第三部分，以2000-2050年的老年人口预测数据为基础，分析了未来养老负担的变化。伴随着劳动力人口比重的下降和老年人口比重的上升，老年负担系数不断增大，必然导致养老负担随着人口老龄化而加重，，无论是社会支出还是为老服务投入都在老龄化进程中不断加大，并且养老服务缺口目前正在日益增大，如养老负担过重将会影响经济的可持续发展。第四部分，通过引进标准消费人的概念，构建了含人口年龄结构的消费函数，对我国未来老年人口与老年消费、老年消费和总消费的关系进行了分析，得出了人口老龄化会使总消费下降，同时老年消费在总消费中的比重呈现出不断上升趋势。并通过构建含人口年龄结构的储蓄模型，得出老年人口比重增大不利于储蓄增长和投资增加。第五部分，针对老年人口比重不断加大的趋势，提出老年群体将会是市场上消费的主要群体，从老年人的特殊需求出发，以社会经济发展的承受能力为基点，通过发展老年产业，来保证老年人的需求，促进经济的可持续发展。同时，满足老年人需求、保障老年人权益，不仅仅是一个经济问题，更是一个社会问题，加快建立为老服务体系，为低收入失能老人提供基本养老服务也是可持续发展的要求。最后，在定量和定性分析的基础上，提出了开发老年人力资源，创造老年人口红利、促进区域劳动力资源优化配置、调整生育政策，减缓老龄化压力、提高人口素质，增强经济发展后劲、加强对低收入失能老人照顾和增加老年福利支出等促进经济可持续发展的相应政策。
[Abstract]:Population aging is an inevitable trend of social economic development, our country has stepped into the aging society the threshold at the end of 2000, the 65 year old elderly population accounted for 6.96% of the total population, and this proportion showed increasing trend. A series of effects brought by aging have gradually shown, such as labor force the decline in the proportion of elderly, pension burden, increasing consumer demand, the industrial structure is not reasonable. It brings a series of problems to deal with aging, which is related to the sustainable economic development.
According to the social security, demography and economics theory, starting from the study of the relationship between population aging and economic sustainable development, by analyzing the current status and future trend of population aging, from the macro and micro level respectively to investigate the influence of population aging on economic development. This paper is divided into the following several parts.
The first part, using the 2000 census data to predict China's population age structure of 2001-2050 years, analyzed the population changes in the proportion of the population aging in our country and the characteristics of all ages. And according to the population and sustainable development theory, combined with the impact of the aging population analysis relationship between population aging and economic sustainable development. The conclusion shows that the future aging will continue to increase, the aging of the population directly or indirectly affect the development of economy.
The second part, based on the analysis of the current labor supply situation in our country, combined with the forecast data for 2000-2050 years, analysis of China's future labor supply will appear insufficient. The aging population not only the number of labor supply effect, and the quality of labor supply will be affected. If the current economic and social conditions remain unchanged the future is likely to be a shortage of labor.
The third part, based on the forecast data of 2000-2050 years old population, analyzes the changes of the future pension burden. With the rising labor population proportion and the decline in the proportion of the elderly population, the elderly burden coefficient increase, will inevitably lead to the pension burden is increasing with the aging of the population, regardless of social spending or investment to service for the old the increase in the aging process, and the pension service gap is currently increasing, such as pension burden will affect the sustainable development of the economy.
The fourth part, through introducing the concept of consumption standard, construct the consumption function with the age structure of the population, the elderly population in China in the future and the elderly elderly consumption, consumption and total consumption were analyzed, the aging of the population will make the total consumption decline, while the old year consumption in the total consumption proportion of a rising trend. And through the construction of savings model with age structure of the population, the proportion of the elderly population increasing is not conducive to the growth of savings and investment.
The fifth part, according to the proportion of elderly population increasing the elderly population will be put forward, mainly on the market of consumer groups, from the point of view of the special needs of the elderly, with the social and economic development capacity as the basis, through the development of aging industry, to ensure that the needs of the elderly, promote the sustainable development of economy. At the same time, to meet the elderly the needs of the people, safeguard the rights and interests of the elderly, is not only an economic problem, but also a social problem, accelerate the establishment of a service system for the old, for low-income disabled elderly to provide basic pension services but also the requirement of sustainable development.
Finally, on the basis of quantitative and qualitative analysis, put forward the development of elderly human resources, create the elderly population dividend, promote regional optimal allocation of labor resources, the adjustment of fertility policy, slow down the aging pressure, improve population quality, enhance the economic development potential, strengthen the disabled elderly care and increase of elderly welfare expenditures to promote the sustainable development of economy the corresponding policy of low income.

【学位授予单位】：上海工程技术大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2011
【分类号】：C92-05

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