新疆人口迁移与经济发展关系的实证研究

发布时间：2018-04-02 02:14

本文选题：新疆　切入点：地州　出处：《石河子大学》2011年硕士论文

【摘要】：目前新疆内部各地州经济差距依然很大,而且存在继续扩大的趋势,这违背了经济可持续发展的要求,也背离了全面建设和谐社会的要求。但即使是缩小地州之间的经济差距,也不能为了自身经济发展而牺牲其他地州的利益,因此以地带划分的南、北、东疆合作发展的设想便应运而生,它力求南、北、东疆通过经济、要素、技术等多方面的合作达到互惠互利、实现双赢的目的。论文以全区、南北东疆三大地带和地州单元为研究的空间尺度,采用规范研究与实证研究相结合的方法,在计量和统计模型的支持下,从重要的经济要素——迁移劳动力角度探讨人口迁移与经济发展的关系并给出相应的政策建议,希望在十二五开局之际,新疆人口的迁移能变的更持久、更经常,更有利于加强地州区域经济的均衡性。论文介绍了选题背景和选题意义,对国外、国内人口迁移理论及人口迁移研究成果进行了回顾和总结,说明了论文的研究思路及研究内容框架,并在此前人口迁移研究的成果上,对人口迁移的概念作了相应的界定,希望以此作为开展论文研究的学理起点。论文第一主体部分运用协整分析和格兰杰因果检验得出新疆人口迁移是经济增长的必要条件,主要是新疆快速的经济增长和城镇较高的收入以及较多的就业机会吸引了大量农村居民的转移。论文第二主体部分分析了新疆地州人口迁移差异与经济发展差异的相互作用。首先,在地州人口迁移对缩小经济差距的贡献分析中,得出人口迁移缩小了地州之间的经济差距,而且这种作用在逐步趋向稳定。其次,在地州人口迁移对经济增长的计量分析中,得出北疆由迁移劳动力创造的GDP量在逐渐增大,是劳动力迁移的最大受益者。最后,在地州人口迁移与经济发展的关系分析中,得出初始经济发展水平是影响地州经济发展的最重要因素,其次是资本投入量,再次则为劳动力增长量的结论。其中,净迁移劳动力与GDP增加量是正相关关系,但初始净迁移劳动力水平与GDP增加量是负相关关系。在以上研究的基础上,论文从微观和宏观两方面给出改善新疆人口迁移与经济协调发展的对策建议。论文通过对新疆人口迁移与经济发展关系的实证分析,力争在研究视角、研究方法、选题思路等方面都实现一定的可能创新价值,特别是对地州层面人口迁移的分析,得出了一些具有可能创新价值的结论和观点,将有助于有效地对新疆人口政策的制定提供一定的参考价值,并为其他一些地区提供可能的借鉴。
[Abstract]:At present, the economic gap among all the states in Xinjiang is still very large, and there is a tendency to continue to expand. This goes against the requirement of sustainable economic development and also deviates from the requirement of building a harmonious society in an all-round way. But even if the economic gap between the prefectures is narrowed, Nor can the interests of other states be sacrificed for the sake of their own economic development.Therefore, the idea of cooperation and development between the south, the north, and the eastern frontier, divided by the belt, emerged as the times require. It strives to the south, the north, and the eastern Xinjiang through the economy and the elements. Technology and other aspects of cooperation to achieve mutual benefit and achieve a win-win goal. The paper takes the whole region, the north and south eastern Xinjiang three zones and the prefecture unit as the spatial scale of the study, and adopts the method of combining normative research with empirical research. With the support of econometric and statistical models, this paper discusses the relationship between population migration and economic development from the angle of the important economic factor, migration labor force, and puts forward corresponding policy recommendations. It is hoped that at the beginning of the twelfth five-year plan, Xinjiang population migration can become more lasting and more frequent, more conducive to strengthening the regional economic balance of prefectures. This paper introduces the background and significance of the selected topic, reviews and summarizes the theories of population migration and the research results of population migration in foreign and domestic countries, and explains the research ideas and research content framework of the paper. On the basis of the results of previous studies on population migration, the concept of population migration is defined accordingly. The first part of the thesis uses cointegration analysis and Granger causality test to conclude that Xinjiang population migration is a necessary condition for economic growth. The rapid economic growth in Xinjiang and the higher income in cities and towns as well as more employment opportunities have attracted a large number of rural residents to move. The second part of the paper analyzes the difference between population migration and economic development in Xinjiang prefecture. First of all, In the analysis of the contribution of population migration to narrowing the economic gap, it is concluded that population migration reduces the economic gap between prefectures and gradually tends to be stable. Secondly, in the econometric analysis of population migration to economic growth in prefectures, It is concluded that the amount of GDP created by the migrating labor force in Northern Xinjiang is gradually increasing, which is the biggest beneficiary of labor migration. Finally, in the analysis of the relationship between population migration and economic development in the prefecture, It is concluded that the initial level of economic development is the most important factor affecting the economic development of the prefectures, followed by the amount of capital input, and then the increase of labor force, in which the net migration labor force is positively correlated with the increase of GDP. However, the initial net migration labor force level is negatively related to the increase of GDP. On the basis of the above research, the paper gives the countermeasures and suggestions to improve the harmonious development of population migration and economy in Xinjiang from the micro and macro aspects. Based on the empirical analysis of the relationship between population migration and economic development in Xinjiang, the paper tries to realize some possible innovative value in the aspects of research perspective, research methods, and ideas of selecting topics, especially the analysis of population migration at prefectural level. Some conclusions and viewpoints with possible innovative value are obtained, which will be helpful to provide some reference value for the formulation of population policy in Xinjiang and for other regions.
【学位授予单位】：石河子大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2011
【分类号】：C92-05;F127;F224

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