中国城市人口压力系数测度及其影响因素

发布时间：2018-04-09 03:23

本文选题：城市人口压力系数　切入点：城市适度人口　出处：《人口与经济》2017年06期

【摘要】：在评述已有关于人口压力研究的基础上,提出基于适度人口与实际人口比较的城市人口压力系数概念,从技术层面构建基于社会净收益动态最优的短板模型来测度城市适度人口。在此基础上,以2010年和2013年我国286个地级及以上城市为例进行实证测度和分析。研究表明:我国城市人口压力可以分为适度偏低、相对适度和超越适度三种类型,大约呈现21.18%、66.32%和12.50%的分布,东、中部和西部存在一定差异;对降低我国城市人口压力存在显著影响的因素包括:城市经济发展能力、城市基础设施和基本公共服务供给、城市居民就业和职工工资水平、大学教育对经济的带动、城市资源的节约意识等。据此,提出相关对策建议。
[Abstract]:On the basis of reviewing the research on population pressure, the concept of urban population pressure coefficient based on the comparison of moderate population and real population is put forward.A short board model based on the dynamic optimization of social net income is constructed to measure the urban moderate population from the technical level.On this basis, 286 cities in 2010 and 2013 are taken as examples to measure and analyze.The study shows that the urban population pressure in China can be divided into three types: moderate low, relative moderate and transcendental moderate, showing a distribution of about 21.18% 66.32% and 12.50%, with some differences in the east, the middle and the west;The factors that have significant influence on the reduction of urban population pressure include: the ability of urban economic development, the provision of urban infrastructure and basic public services, the employment of urban residents and the wage level of workers and staff, and the impetus of university education to the economy.The consciousness of saving urban resources.Accordingly, put forward the relevant countermeasure suggestion.
【作者单位】：云南大学发展研究院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目“城市化进程中的‘适度人口’动态测度及路径实现”(12CRK021) 云南省应用基础研究面上项目“考虑空间外溢效应的城市适度人口动态区间及实现策略研究——以滇中城市群为例”(2014FB115) 云南省哲学社会科学规划一般项目“基于人口老龄化趋势的云南二次人口红利研究”(YB2016038)
【分类号】：C924.2

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