日本生育水平变化分析

发布时间：2018-04-10 10:51

本文选题：生育水平+总和生育率　；参考：《人口学刊》2017年05期

【摘要】：日本作为少子老龄化最典型的国家其生育水平的变化非常具有代表性。本文使用"寇尔生育指数模型"分析二战以后日本生育水平的变化,探讨其未来的发展变化趋势。二战后,1947年日本总和生育率达到最高值4.54;之后生育水平不断下降,2005年达到最低值1.26;近年来日本生育水平缓慢提高,2014年总和生育率回升到1.42。日本生育水平下降的主要原因是婚内生育率下降及结婚率的降低。婚内生育率不断下降是由于生育观念转变导致的婚内生育意愿下降造成的,生育不再以传宗接代为目的,也不再是妻子必须履行的义务。结婚率的降低则是因为越来越多的女性参加工作,不愿过早结婚生子。婚内生育率与结婚率变化在生育水平下降的不同阶段表现不同,早期婚内生育率下降是导致总和生育率下降的主要原因,而结婚率的变化仅起到辅助作用;中期结婚率的下降成为总和生育率持续下降的主要诱因,而婚内生育率水平则保持相对稳定的水平。进入21世纪以来,日本生育水平有所回升的主要原因是婚内生育水平缓慢提高,结婚率下降对生育水平的消极作用也几乎释放完毕。未来日本在结婚率保持相对稳定的情况下,要想进一步提高总和生育水平就必须提高婚内生育率。政府必须在降低育儿成本、提高生育家庭的补助等方面制定相关政策,引导家庭多生育子女。
[Abstract]:Japan, as the most typical country of minority aging, its fertility level changes are very representative.This paper analyzes the change of Japanese fertility level after World War II by using the Kol fertility index model and probes into its future development trend.After World War II, Japan's total fertility rate reached its highest level of 4.54 in 1947; since then, it has fallen, reaching its lowest level of 1.26 in 2005. In recent years, the country's fertility rate has risen slowly, to 1.42 percent in 2014.The decline in fertility in Japan is mainly due to a fall in the fertility rate within marriage and a decrease in the rate of marriage.The declining fertility rate in marriage is caused by the decrease in the willingness to have children in marriage, which is caused by the change of conception of reproduction. Fertility is no longer for the purpose of inheritance, nor is it the obligation that the wife must perform.The decline in marriage rates is due to an increasing number of women working and unwilling to marry and have children prematurely.The change of fertility rate in marriage is different from the change of marriage rate in different stages of fertility decline. The decline of early marriage fertility rate is the main reason for the decline of total fertility rate, but the change of marriage rate only plays a supplementary role.The decline in the rate of marriage in the medium term is the main cause of the continued decline in the total fertility rate, while the level of the fertility rate in marriage remains relatively stable.Since the beginning of the 21st century, the main reason for the rise of the fertility level in Japan is the slow increase of the fertility level in marriage and the release of the negative effect of the decline of the marriage rate on the fertility level.In the future, if Japan's marriage rate remains relatively stable, it will be necessary to raise the intramarital fertility rate in order to further raise the total fertility level.The government must make relevant policies to reduce the cost of childcare and increase the subsidy for families to have more children.
【作者单位】：吉林大学东北亚研究中心;
【基金】：吉林省科学技术厅项目:吉林省人口老龄化与养老公共服务研究(20130420102FG) 教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地项目:中日韩应对老龄化政策比较研究(15JJD810009) 吉林大学重大课题培育项目:中日韩应对人口老龄化政策比较研究(2015ZDPY14)
【分类号】：C924.313

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