上海市精细时空尺度人口分布估计与特征分析

发布时间：2018-04-10 07:02

本文选题：移动通讯信令　切入点：人口分布　出处：《地球信息科学学报》2017年06期

【摘要】：城市人口实时分布与动态变化特征是城市规划与综合治理的重要依据。受数据获取手段的局限性,准确地获取城市人口的实时分布状况一直是技术瓶颈,而移动通讯技术的迅速普及为这一问题的解决提供了技术途径。本文基于移动通讯信令的连续轨迹数据,实现了城市精细尺度人口分布时空估算的方法流程,并以上海市为研究区,对城市人口分布特征及时空移动过程进行了量化分析。研究表明:(1)在数据方面,基于移动通讯信令数据估算城市人口分布的方式样本覆盖广、时空精度高、时效性较强且支持时空尺度灵活多变的应用研究需求,能够定量地描述城市人口分布时空动态特征且能推算城市真实人口规模;(2)在人口分布时空特征方面,上海市在全市尺度上,各时段人口空间分布较为稳定且差异较小,而在中心城区日间人口较夜间人口呈现更为显著的空间集聚特征;(3)在人口移动时空特征方面,城市功能承载区与其它区域之间人口移动很少,早晚高峰期各城市功能承载区之间人口移动均体现为中心城区与其它新城之间的移动,且2个方向移动人数较为平衡;各城市功能承载区内均有超过半数的人口全天仅在其所在城区内部活动。本文的研究成果可为上海城市规划、应急管理、交通出行等提供更精准的科学依据。
[Abstract]:The characteristics of real-time distribution and dynamic change of urban population are the important basis for urban planning and comprehensive management.Due to the limitation of data acquisition methods, accurate access to the real-time distribution of urban population has always been a technical bottleneck, and the rapid spread of mobile communication technology provides a technical way to solve this problem.Based on the continuous track data of mobile communication signalling, this paper realizes the method flow of spatiotemporal estimation of urban fine scale population distribution, and takes Shanghai as the research area, carries on the quantitative analysis to the urban population distribution characteristic and the space-time movement process.The research shows that in the aspect of data, the method of estimating urban population distribution based on mobile signaling data has wide sample coverage, high spatio-temporal accuracy, high time-efficiency, and supports the application research needs of flexible and changeable spatio-temporal scale.The spatial and temporal characteristics of urban population distribution can be quantitatively described and the size of urban real population can be calculated. In terms of spatial and temporal characteristics of population distribution, the spatial distribution of population in Shanghai is relatively stable and the difference is small on the scale of the whole city.However, in the central urban area, the spatial concentration of the daytime population is more significant than that of the nocturnal population. (3) in terms of the spatial and temporal characteristics of population movement, the population movement between the urban functional bearing area and other regions is very small.In the morning and evening peak period, the population movement between the functional bearing areas of each city is reflected in the movement between the central city and other new cities, and the number of people moving in two directions is more balanced;More than half of the population in each urban functional bearing area is only active within its urban area.The research results of this paper can provide more accurate scientific basis for Shanghai urban planning, emergency management, traffic travel and so on.
【作者单位】：中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室;中国科学院大学;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金面上项目(41571431、41401460、41271408);国家自然科学基金重点项目(41231171)
【分类号】：C922

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