超低生育率现象及其影响研究

发布时间：2018-04-12 07:44

本文选题：总和生育率 + 超低生育率　；参考：《安徽大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：最近十多年间,超低生育率现象作为一种新的人口现象在全球各国引起了各方的关注,联合国人口司的一项研究表明,现在处于中等生育水平的国家预计到这个世纪中叶将出现人口负增长。在不久的将来,不仅发达国家,越来越多的发展中国家也将面临超低生育率现象带来的麻烦。中国作为地球上人口数量最多的国家,超低生育率现象的出现更应受到重视。本文关注的主题是超低生育率现象,通过对这个现象产生的背景、现状和特点进行归纳和总结,在此基础上,结合前人的研究成果,分析超低生育率现象给我国人口发展带来的挑战,另外,从人口政策和人口规划方面探讨解决这一人口现象的途径。本文的研究内容主要包括四个部分：第一个部分是与生育率相关的几个基本概念以及相关的理论的论述。基本概念有一般生育率、总和生育率、更替水平和超低生育率,前几个都是人口统计学方面常见的概念,最后的超低生育率是一个比较新的概念,也是几个概念中最重要的一个。相关理论主要是经典的人口转变论和进来越来越受到重视的“低生育率陷阱”理论。第二个部分论述的是建国以来我国生育水平变动的历史,以及处在低生育水平时期的当前出现的一种新人口现象——超低生育率现象。第三部分是分析超低生育率现象对我国人口发展的影响。生育作为人口自然变动的最重要方面之一,其变化会影响到人口规模、人口结构等其他人口构成要素。生育水平首先会对人口规模的变动产生直接的影响,是决定人口增长或人口负增长的重要因素之一；其次会对人口性别结构和人口年龄结构造成冲击,人口性别比问题和人口老龄化加重问题都和生育水平有着直接或间接的联系。第四部分是结语。这部分内容主要是从我国人口发展安全的角度对重视超低生育率现象、解决超低生育率问题进行了论述和说明。
[Abstract]:In the last decade or so, the phenomenon of ultra-low fertility has attracted worldwide attention as a new demographic phenomenon, according to a study by the United Nations population Division.Countries now at moderate fertility levels expect negative population growth by the middle of the century.In the near future, not only developed countries, but also more and more developing countries will face the problem of ultra-low fertility.As the most populous country on earth, the emergence of ultra-low fertility rate should be paid more attention to.The theme of this paper is the phenomenon of ultra-low fertility rate. The background, current situation and characteristics of this phenomenon are summarized and summarized. On this basis, combined with the previous research results,This paper analyzes the challenges brought by the phenomenon of ultra-low fertility rate to the population development of our country, and probes into the ways to solve this phenomenon from the aspects of population policy and population planning.The main contents of this paper include four parts: the first part is the discussion of several basic concepts related to fertility and related theories.The basic concepts are the general fertility rate, the total fertility rate, the replacement level and the ultra-low fertility rate. The first few concepts are common in demographics, and the last ultra-low fertility rate is a relatively new concept.It is also the most important of several concepts.The related theories are the classical theory of population transition and the theory of low fertility trap.The second part discusses the history of fertility level changes since the founding of the people's Republic of China, and a new population phenomenon in the period of low fertility level-ultra-low fertility rate.The third part is to analyze the influence of the extremely low fertility rate phenomenon on the population development of our country.Fertility, as one of the most important aspects of natural population change, will affect the population size, population structure and other demographic elements.Fertility levels, first, have a direct impact on the size of the population and are one of the important determinants of population growth or negative population growth; secondly, they have an impact on the sex and age structure of the population.The sex ratio of population and the aggravation of population aging have direct or indirect relation with fertility level.The fourth part is the conclusion.This part mainly discusses and explains how to pay attention to the phenomenon of ultra-low fertility rate and how to solve the problem of ultra-low fertility rate from the point of view of population development security in China.
【学位授予单位】：安徽大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：C924.2

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