中日美人口世代的界定与对宏观经济的启示

发布时间：2018-04-14 13:17

本文选题：人口世代 + 婴儿潮　；参考：《国际经济评论》2017年06期

【摘要】：随着婴儿潮和婴儿谷世代依次进入劳动力市场,历史上的美国和日本相应地出现了人口红利期和人口红利消失期,但是在1990年之后,美国经济打破了人口学的诅咒,而日本经济却一直严格受到人口学规律的支配,呈现低迷。与此同时,中国经验结果表明,1990年前的人口世代进入劳动力市场的时期,中国经济严格受到人口学规律支配。未来中国要做的是,吸取日本教训,参照美国经验,要像美国1990年代以后那样,打破出生率下降的人口规律对经济增速支配的诅咒。在适龄劳动人口减少的背景下,采取合适的养老制度,如自己养自己的储蓄或者积累制养老,给劳动人口和财政减压,增加储蓄,提高资本的积累效应,降低人口世代更迭对宏观经济的负面影响,为长期结构性改革赢得时间。
[Abstract]:As baby boomers and baby valley generations entered the labour market in turn, the United States and Japan experienced a corresponding demographic dividend and a period when the dividend disappeared, but after 1990, the American economy broke the demographic curse.But the Japanese economy has been strictly dominated by the laws of demography, showing a downturn.At the same time, the results of China's experience show that the Chinese economy was strictly dominated by demographic laws in the period before 1990 when the population generations entered the labor market.What China will have to do in the future is to learn from Japan's lessons and to break the curse of declining birth rates over economic growth, as the United States has done since the 1990s.In the context of the decrease in the number of working people of the appropriate age, we should adopt appropriate pension systems, such as raising their own savings or accumulating their own pension system, reducing the pressure on the working population and finance, increasing savings, and increasing the accumulation effect of capital.Reducing the negative impact of demographic change on the macro economy will buy time for long-term structural reforms.
【作者单位】：中国农业银行总行;对外经济贸易大学;中南财经政法大学公共管理学院;
【分类号】：C924;F113

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