新人口红利、生产性服务业发展与城市生产率——基于长三角城市群的实证研究

发布时间：2018-04-16 03:23

本文选题：新人口红利 + 生产性服务业　；参考：《南京社会科学》2017年01期

【摘要】：传统人口红利消失和产业结构红利消失的双重叠加是经济增长进入“新常态”过程中城市经济必需面临的重大挑战。本文基于2003-2014年长三角地区41个城市的面板数据模型,考察了新人口红利和生产性服务发展对城市生产率的影响,研究结果表明:通过发展高等教育积累的人力资本是新人口红利产生的重要源泉,对长三角城市生产率具有促进作用;发展生产性服务业是释放人力资本生产率促进功能的途径,生产性服务业与城市生产率之间呈现先降后升的U型关系。江浙两省地级市的子样本估计结果显示,新人口红利对城市生产率的促进作用不显著,这意味着江浙地区仍需创造释放人力资本对城市生产率促进功能的政策空间。
[Abstract]:The double superposition between the disappearance of traditional demographic dividend and the disappearance of industrial structure dividend is a major challenge to the urban economy in the process of economic growth entering the "new normal".Based on the panel data model of 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta region from 2003 to 2014, this paper investigates the impact of the new demographic dividend and the development of productive services on urban productivity.The results show that the human capital accumulated through the development of higher education is an important source of the new demographic dividend, which can promote the productivity of cities in the Yangtze River Delta.The development of producer services is the way to release the function of promoting human capital productivity. The relationship between producer services and urban productivity is U-shaped.The sub-sample estimates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces show that the new demographic dividend has no significant effect on urban productivity, which means that Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions still need to create a policy space to release human capital to the function of promoting urban productivity.
【作者单位】：浙江工商大学金融学院;南京审计大学经济与贸易学院;
【分类号】：F129.9

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