中国低生育水平下的劳动力供给以及未来变动趋势

发布时间：2018-04-16 16:18

本文选题：低生育水平 + 劳动力供给　；参考：《河北大学》2011年硕士论文

【摘要】：中国是一个人口大国,人口数量和人口结构问题一直困扰着我们。自上个世纪70年代计划生育政策实施以来,生育水平已经下降到更替水平以下,但是劳动力市场又出现了“民工潮”、“民工荒”、“农民工大返乡”等问题,未来劳动力供求将如何演变受到人们深刻的关注。人口、经济、社会等许多因素都会影响劳动力供给,其中人口因素是最基本方面,人口中劳动年龄人口又是潜在劳动力的基础部分。因此本文首先对生育水平现状进行描述,并指出生育水平的降低、总人口数量减少以后出现的一些问题,其次对劳动力供给现状进行分析,又对不同生育率方案下未来40年内中国劳动力供给的变化趋势进行了预测,用数据来说明问题并提出应对措施,最后得出结论,计划生育是我们长期坚持的基本国策,今后的主要任务是稳定适度低生育水平的前提下不断提高出生人口素质,为基本实现现代化和可持续发展创造良好的人口环境。
[Abstract]:China is a large population, population and population structure has been puzzling us.Since the implementation of the family planning policy in the 1970s, the fertility level has fallen below the replacement level. However, problems have emerged in the labor market such as "migrant workers' tide", "migrant workers shortage", "migrant workers returning home" and so on.How the labor supply and demand will evolve in the future will be deeply concerned by people.Many factors, such as population, economy, society and so on, will affect the supply of labor force, among which the population factor is the most basic aspect, and the working-age population is the basic part of the potential labor force.Therefore, this paper first describes the present situation of the fertility level, and points out some problems after the reduction of the fertility level and the decrease of the total population, and then analyzes the present situation of labor supply.It also predicts the changing trend of China's labor supply in the next 40 years under different fertility plans, uses data to explain the problem and puts forward countermeasures. Finally, it concludes that family planning is the basic national policy that we have adhered to for a long time.The main task in the future is to improve the quality of the birth population on the premise of stable and moderate low fertility level and to create a good population environment for the basic realization of modernization and sustainable development.
【学位授予单位】：河北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2011
【分类号】：C924.24;F249.21

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