人口老龄化与长期人均收入演进

发布时间：2018-04-16 19:46

本文选题：人口老龄化 + 索洛模型　；参考：《贵州社会科学》2017年12期

【摘要】：人口老龄化对经济增长的影响在学术界长期一直未有定论。通过在索洛模型中引入人口异质性,结合储蓄率、劳动供给分析人口老龄化对长期人均收入的影响,分析结果表明,储蓄率和老年抚养比对长期人均收入具有正效应,少儿抚养比对长期人均收入则具有负效应;随着人口老龄化程度的加深,储蓄率的正效应有所增强,且比较稳定,而老年抚养比的正效应在不断减弱,少儿抚养比的负效应则在显著提高,并且远远超过前者。这一结果对单纯依赖放开生育的政策提出质疑,指出应对人口老龄化需要盘活存量与优化增量适当配合,要重视延迟退休、移民以及充分利用现有老年人资源等方法的综合应用。
[Abstract]:The impact of population aging on economic growth has long been inconclusive in academia.By introducing population heterogeneity, combining savings rate and labor supply into Solow model, the paper analyzes the effect of aging population on long-term per capita income. The results show that savings rate and old-age dependency ratio have positive effects on long-term per capita income.With the deepening of the aging of the population, the positive effect of the savings rate is stronger and more stable, while the positive effect of the old-age dependency ratio is weakening.The negative effect of child dependency ratio is significantly increased, and far more than the former.This result questioned the policy of relying solely on the liberalization of fertility, and pointed out that to cope with the ageing of the population, it was necessary to invigorate the stock properly with the optimization of the increment, and pay attention to the delay in retirement.Comprehensive application of methods such as emigration and making full use of existing resources for the elderly.
【作者单位】：西南大学;
【基金】：国家社科基金青年项目“内生技术视角下马克思经济增长理论动力系统及其应用研究”(13CJL003) 国家自然科学基金项目“博弈视域下农民工市民化诱导机理研究”(71373215)
【分类号】：C924.24;F113.8

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