低生育率陷阱:理论、事实与启示

发布时间：2018-04-17 01:39

本文选题：低生育率 + 极低生育率　；参考：《人口研究》2014年01期

【摘要】："低生育率陷阱"理论认为,低生育率具有人口学、社会学和经济学三个自我强化机制,生育水平一旦降到1.5以下将很难回升。近年来,世界范围内众多国家生育率回升的事实质疑了该理论,挑战了它本身的一些论证和证据。"低生育率陷阱"说法可能只是对短期内生育率变动现象的总结,还不能归纳为规律。中国目前的生育水平在临界值1.5以上,尚未陷入"低生育率陷阱"。多项调查表明中国目前的意愿生育水平在1.8以上,有60%以上的人在政策调整后会生育第二个孩子。同时,进度效应在降低时期总和生育率上仍起着重要作用。因此,在较高的生育意愿影响下,伴随着生育政策的调整以及未来进度效应的减弱,生育率在未来一段时期内会出现回升而不是下降。断言中国已进入"低生育率陷阱"或面临"低生育率陷阱"的严重风险还为时过早。
[Abstract]:The theory of "low fertility trap" holds that the low fertility rate has three self-reinforcing mechanisms of demography, sociology and economics. Once the fertility level drops below 1.5, it will be difficult to recover.In recent years, the fact that fertility rates have rebounded in many countries around the world has challenged the theory and challenged some of its own arguments and evidence. "The theory of low fertility trap may be a summary of short-term fertility change, but not a rule.China's current fertility level above the threshold of 1.5, has not yet fallen into a "low fertility trap."More than 60 percent of people in China are expected to have a second child after the policy changes, according to a number of surveys showing that China's current willingness to have children is above 1.8.At the same time, progress effect still plays an important role in reducing the total fertility rate.Therefore, under the influence of higher fertility intention, with the adjustment of fertility policy and the weakening of future progress effect, the fertility rate will rise rather than decrease in a period of time.It is too early to say that China has entered a low fertility trap or is at serious risk of a low fertility trap.
【作者单位】：中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心;
【基金】：中国人民大学科学研究基金(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助)项目资助(项目批准号:13XNH183)
【分类号】：C924.2

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