基于FEEEP的我国适度人口问题研究

发布时间：2018-04-18 07:09

本文选题：适度人口 + FEEEP　；参考：《南京财经大学》2010年硕士论文

【摘要】： 人口问题是我国实现可持续发展战略的首要问题。作为世界第一人口大国,中国的人口增长和经济发展给食物供给、能源需求和自然环境带来了巨大的压力。研究我国在一定社会经济背景和自然条件约束下的适度人口规模,有助于正确认识我国的人口问题。文章从FEEEP的视角研究中国近期的适度人口规模。FEEEP是由亚太经合组织提出的全球发展课题,其核心理念是食物、环境、能源、经济发展和人口协调发展。首先从我国的现状出发详细论述了人口在FEEEP中的地位及作用,阐释了FEEEP与可持续发展的联系和区别,认为FEEEP是适合中国国情的可持续发展阶段性目标,研究基于FEEEP的适度人口问题具有较强的现实意义。并将基于FEEEP的适度人口的内涵总结为:在食物和能源的约束条件下,以经济发展和环境污染控制为目标的人口数量。接下来通过拟合、预测FEEEP系统内各要素之间的数量关系特征,构建了以经济发展和控制环境污染为目标,能源供求、食物供求为约束的多目标线性规划模型。最后分别以温饱水平、小康水平、发达国家水平的人均食物消费量为标准设置了三类情景进行模型求解。求解结果为:温饱水平下我国近期的适度人口为90119.98万人,制约适度人口的主要因素是环境污染;小康水平下为85780.83万人,主要制约因素是食物;发达国家水平下为68624.67万人,主要制约因素是食物和能源。对三类情景下的社会经济指标进行比较分析,发现发达国家情景下的资本存量水平等经济指标我国在近期难以达到,而小康情景下的各项人均经济指标高于温饱情景下的水平。因此,认为85780.83万人是我国近期内最优的适度人口规模。根据适度人口的求解结果,得到以下主要结论:(1)我国现实人口和实际人口存在较大差距,为了提高人均福利,减轻资源环境的压力,几十年内我国必须坚持计划生育政策不能变。(2)对我国生产函数的拟合证实了我国目前还处于粗放型的经济增长模式中,经济增长造成了相当严重的环境污染问题,只有转变经济发展方式,并大力发展教育事业才能实现FEEEP的协调可持续发展。(3)环境、食物、能源分别在社会经济发展的不同阶段对适度人口起着最为关键的约束作用,建设环境友好型、资源节约型社会是影响我国人口发展和社会经济发展的重要战略措施。
[Abstract]:The population problem is the primary problem to realize the sustainable development strategy of our country. As the world's most populous country, Chinese population growth and economic development to the food supply, energy demand and natural environment has brought great pressure. Research in China's social and economic background and natural conditions under the constraint of moderate population scale, the population problem will help to a correct understanding of our country.
From the perspective of FEEEP.FEEEP Chinese moderate population scale is the recent global development project proposed by APEC, which is the core concept of food, environment, energy, economic development and population development. Firstly, from the present situation of our country and discusses the role of population in the status of FEEEP, explains the connection and the difference between FEEEP and sustainable development, FEEEP is considered sustainable development milestones for Chinese conditions, has a strong practical significance of moderate population based on FEEEP. And the connotation of population based on FEEEP is summarized as follows: the constraints in food and energy, the number of population to economic development and environmental pollution control for the next target. By fitting, prediction of the number of relationship between the various elements within the FEEEP system, construction of the economic development and environmental pollution control targets for energy For food, supply and demand for multi objective linear programming model constraints. Finally, the subsistence level, the well-off level, per capita food consumption level of developed countries as the standard set up three scenarios to solve the model. The results are: the recent moderate population under the subsistence level in our country is 901 million 199 thousand and 800, main factors restricting the moderate population environmental pollution; well-off level is 857 million 808 thousand and 300, the main restricting factors of food; the level of the developed countries for 686 million 246 thousand and 700 people, the main restricting factors are food and energy. A comparative analysis of three kinds of scenarios of social economic indicators, economic indicators that developed countries under the situation of capital stock in China is difficult to achieve in the near future but, the per capita economic indicator of a scenario above the subsistence situation level. Therefore, I think 857 million 808 thousand and 300 is best in recent moderate population size.
According to the results of a moderate population, the main conclusions are as follows: (1) there is a big gap between the reality of China's population and the actual population, in order to increase the per capita welfare, alleviate the pressure of resources and environment, within a few decades China must adhere to the policy of family planning can not be changed. (2) to fit the production function of our country confirmed economic growth mode of our country is still in the extensive mode of economic growth, caused by environmental pollution problem is very serious, only change the mode of economic development, and vigorously develop education in order to achieve the sustainable development of FEEEP. (3) the environment, food, energy in different phases of economic and social development of the population plays the most the key constraint function, the construction of environment-friendly, resource-saving society is an important strategic measure of China's population development and social economic development.

【学位授予单位】：南京财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2010
【分类号】：C924.24

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