基于时间序列的郑州市城市人口——面积异速生长特征及预测

发布时间：2018-04-19 21:15

本文选题：异速生长 + Logistic模型　；参考：《现代城市研究》2017年05期

【摘要】：研究目的:揭示近年郑州城市人口与建成区土地面积规模的发展特征与规律,为城市人地协调发展和城市边界扩展的划定提供一定的理论支撑。研究方法:本文运用异速生长模型从城市整体角度对1981-2015年间郑州城市人口—面积异速生长关系进行测度,然后运用Logistic函数对未来十年郑州城市人口和面积规模进行预测,为郑州市未来城市规模确定和人地协调发展提供支持。结果表明:(1)从整体宏观角度来看,二者符合异速生长关系且阶段特征明显;其中,1981-2002年,市区人口和建成区面积呈现稳定缓慢增长态势,标度指数b=1.12;2003年由于郑东新区建设导致建成区面积大幅增加,标度指数b上升至1.66;2010年后市区人口进入快速增长期,标度指数下降至1.52;总体上一直高于理论值0.85。(2)Logistic预测结果表明郑州城市人口与建成区面积最大值分别为945.58万人和790.42km~2,从长远来看这个结果是可信的;未来十年二者异速生长标度指数b=1.0387,比较接近理论值;2025年城市人口753万人,建成区面积709km~2,人均建成区面积94.2m~2,城市用地较为集约。研究结论:在城市化进程中,地方政府应根据城市发展的自然规律合理供给城市建设用地,注重城市发展质量,推动人口、土地协调发展,提高城市土地利用率。
[Abstract]:The purpose of this study is to reveal the development characteristics and laws of urban population and land area in Zhengzhou in recent years so as to provide some theoretical support for the coordinated development of urban population and land and the delineation of urban boundary. Methods: in this paper, the allometric growth model is used to measure the relationship between population and area in Zhengzhou from 1981 to 2015, and then the Logistic function is used to predict the population and area scale of Zhengzhou city in the next ten years. Zhengzhou for the future city size determination and human-land coordinated development to provide support. The results show that from the overall macroscopic point of view, both of them accord with the isokinetic growth relationship and have obvious phase characteristics, and the population of urban areas and the area of the built-up areas showed a steady and slow growth trend from 1981 to 2002. The scale index bai 1.12; in 2003, due to the construction of the new area of Zheng Dong, the area of the established area increased substantially, and the scale index b rose to 1.66; after 2010, the urban population entered a period of rapid growth. The scale index decreased to 1.52.The 0.85.(2)Logistic prediction results show that the maximum population of Zhengzhou urban population and the area of the built-up area are 9.4558 million and 790.42 km2, respectively, which is credible in the long run. In the next ten years, the index of isokinetic growth is 1.0387, which is close to the theoretical value, with a population of 7.53 million in 2025, an area of 709 km2 in the urban area, and a per capita area of 94.2 mm2 in per capita. The urban land use is relatively intensive. Conclusion: in the process of urbanization, local governments should supply urban construction land reasonably according to the natural law of urban development, pay attention to the quality of urban development, promote the coordinated development of population and land, and improve the utilization rate of urban land.
【作者单位】：河南大学环境与规划学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41671536),国家自然科学基金项目(41501134) 河南省科技发展计划项目(152102310296)
【分类号】：C922

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