基于GIS的内蒙古人口分布特征和情景模拟

发布时间：2018-04-19 22:37

本文选题：人口分布 + 情景模拟　；参考：《内蒙古师范大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：人口分布是人口发展过程的空间表现形式，它受制于并反作用于区域的经济社会发展水平。为了准确模拟人口空间分布并描述人口分布特征，本文以内蒙古为研究区，选取1990、2000和2010年的内蒙古人口数据，分别计算不均衡指数和集中指数，得到内蒙古人口分布的区域特征并对1990～2000年和2000～2010年内蒙古人口的增长特征进行分析；选取2010年内蒙古101个旗县（区）的人口数据，结合内蒙古2010年的Landsat TM影像、气候数据、DEM数据、土壤数据、水文数据、交通数据、居民地分布数据和行政区划数据，实现内蒙古2010年人口数据空间化，最后通过GM（1，1）灰色模型对2011～2015年内蒙古101个旗县（区）的人口进行预测，并对内蒙古2015年人口密度分布进行模拟。主要研究结果如下：（1）1990～2000年，内蒙古总人口增长了225.21万人，年均增长率1.01%，，各行政单元人口年均增长率的变化范围从-1.37%到4.60%；2000年～2010年，内蒙古总人口增长了96.85万人，年均增长率为0.41%，各行政单元人口年均增长率的变化范围从-0.84%到5.00%，各指标均比前一阶段（1990～2000年）有所降低。从总体来看，内蒙古人口增长率大部分保持在0.00%～1.00%之间。人口增长率较高的地区集中在内蒙古中西部地区，包括呼和浩特市、包头市、鄂尔多斯市和乌海市。（2）1990～2000年，内蒙古人口重心整体向西南方向迁移，人口分布有从西北部向东南部集中的趋势。人口大体上在两个区域集中：在内蒙古中西部地区，人口分布主要集中在乌海市、巴彦淖尔市南部、包头市南部、呼和浩特市大部分地区和乌兰察布市南部；在内蒙古东部地区，人口分布主要集中在通辽市和赤峰市大部分地区、兴安盟和呼伦贝尔市东部地区。人口在中西部地区的集中程度更高，而在赤峰市和通辽市内部人口分布相对均匀。（3）从对2011～2015年内蒙古101个旗县（区）的人口预测以及模拟结果来看，人口密度最高值由2010年的28219人/km2增加到2015年的29439人/km2。大部分旗县（区）的人口年均增长率介于0.00%～3.00%之间，达到85个，占总数的84.16%；人口呈负增长的旗县（区）有9个，占总数的8.91%；年均增长率大于3.00%的旗县（区）有7个，占总数的6.93%。人口年均增长率排在前三位的盟市是乌海市、包头市和鄂尔多斯市，均位于内蒙古的西部地区。2010～2015年内蒙古东部地区5个盟市（呼伦贝尔市、兴安盟、通辽市、赤峰市和锡林郭勒盟）人口总数的年均增长率为0.72%，而内蒙古西部地区7个盟市（呼和浩特市、包头市、鄂尔多斯市、乌兰察布市、巴彦淖尔市、乌海市和阿拉善盟）人口总数的年均增长率为1.54%。未来五年，内蒙古西部地区的人口增长速度要明显快于内蒙古东部地区。
[Abstract]:Population distribution is the spatial manifestation of population development, which is restricted and counteracted by the level of regional economic and social development. In order to accurately simulate the spatial distribution of population and describe the characteristics of population distribution, this paper takes Inner Mongolia as the study area, selects the population data of Inner Mongolia from 1990 to 2000 and 2010, calculates the unbalanced index and the concentration index, respectively. The regional characteristics of population distribution in Inner Mongolia are obtained and the characteristics of population growth in Inner Mongolia from 1990 to 2000 and from 2000 to 2010 are analyzed, and the population data of 101 flag counties (districts) in Inner Mongolia in 2010 are selected. Combined with the Landsat TM image of Inner Mongolia in 2010, the climate data of Dem are obtained. Soil data, hydrological data, traffic data, residential distribution data and administrative division data are used to realize the spatialization of population data in 2010 in Inner Mongolia. Finally, the population of 101 flag counties (districts) in Inner Mongolia from 2011 to 2015 is forecasted by GMGM1Q1) grey model. The population density distribution in Inner Mongolia in 2015 was simulated. The main findings are as follows: From 1990 to 2000, the total population of Inner Mongolia increased by 2.2521 million people, with an average annual growth rate of 1.010.The average annual population growth rate of each administrative unit ranged from -1.37% to 4.60%, and from 2000 to 2010, the total population of Inner Mongolia increased by 968500 people. The average annual growth rate is 0.41%, the average annual population growth rate of each administrative unit ranges from -0.84% to 5.00%, and each index is lower than that of the previous stage (1990-2000). Overall, the population growth rate in Inner Mongolia remained mostly between 0.0010% and 1.00%. The regions with high population growth rate are concentrated in the central and western regions of Inner Mongolia, including Hohhot, Baotou, Ordos and Wuhai. From 1990 to 2000, the population center of gravity of Inner Mongolia moved to the southwest, and the population distribution tended to concentrate from the northwest to the southeast. The population is mainly concentrated in two regions: in the central and western regions of Inner Mongolia, the population distribution is mainly concentrated in Wuhai City, southern Bayannur City, southern Baotou City, most areas of Hohhot City and the southern part of Ulanchab City; In the eastern region of Inner Mongolia, the population distribution is mainly concentrated in most areas of Tongliao City and Chifeng City, and the eastern areas of XingUNITA and Hulunbeir City. Population concentration is higher in the central and western regions, but relatively uniform in Chifeng and Tongliao. From the population forecast and simulation results of 101 flag counties (districts) in Inner Mongolia from 2011 to 2015, the highest population density increased from 28219 people / km ~ 2 in 2010 to 29439 / km ~ (2) / / km ~ (2) in 2015. The average annual population growth rate of most flag counties (districts) is between 0.000% and 3.00%, reaching 85, accounting for 84.16% of the total; there are 9 flag counties (districts) with negative population growth, accounting for 8.91% of the total; there are 7 flag counties (districts) with an average annual growth rate of more than 3.00%, accounting for 6.933% of the total. Wuhai City, Baotou City and Ordos City are the top three cities with average annual population growth rate. They are located in the western region of Inner Mongolia and five cities in eastern Inner Mongolia from 2010 to 2015 (Hulunbeir City, XingUNITA City, Tongliao City). The average annual growth rate of the total population of Chifeng and Xilingol is 0.72, while in the western part of Inner Mongolia there are seven cities (Hohhot, Baotou, Ordos, Ulaanchab, Bayannur, The average annual growth rate of the total population of Wuhai City and Alashan League is 1.54. In the next five years, the population growth rate in the western part of Inner Mongolia is obviously faster than that in the eastern part of Inner Mongolia.
【学位授予单位】：内蒙古师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：C922;P208

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