人口老龄化、养老保险对居民储蓄率的影响

发布时间：2018-04-21 10:33

本文选题：人口老龄化 + 养老保险　；参考：《华侨大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：储蓄不仅与居民生活水平息息相关,而且也关系到我国未来经济的发展,因此研究居民储蓄率具有重要意义。而对于居民储蓄率来说,人口老龄化进程的加快和我国的养老保险制度的发展是影响它的重要因素之一,但究竟它们与居民储蓄率之间存在怎样的联系,这是一个值得深入研究的问题。本文首先回顾了人口老龄化和养老保险影响储蓄的相关文献,并在此基础之上,又对它们影响储蓄的经典理论给予了相关介绍。然后阐述了我国目前人口老龄化状况、养老保险的改革阶段以及居民储蓄的变化趋势。随后,在进行实证分析时,我们先构建考虑人口老龄化下的OLG模型,而后在此条件上构建包含中国现收现付模式与个人账户模式相结合的社会保险制度的OLG模型,并通过选取2001-2014年省级面板数据进行实证对比,以此来分析老年抚养比、预期寿命以及养老保险缴费率这三个核心变量对居民储蓄率的影响变化情况。相比之下,在对未来居民储蓄率进行预测时,我们对前面构造的三期世代交叠模型进行一定的扩展,把我国传统文化“孝文化”的情形考虑进去,即在模型中加入家庭养老模式,通过数值模拟来分析在老龄化大背景下家庭养老和社会养老同时作用时会对居民储蓄率造成的影响以及我国在全面实施二胎政策下各因素变量对我国今后储蓄率的影响变化。最后我们给出相关人口政策和养老保险体系的建议,以使得我国在未来能够降低储蓄率,从而扩大内需、促进消费,更好地能拉动经济增长。本人从实证研究和数值模拟两个方面分析了人口老龄化、养老保险对居民储蓄率的影响。实证研究得到如下结论:在不考虑养老保险情况下,老年抚养比对储蓄率有抑制作用,而预期寿命对储蓄率却有促进的作用。如果考虑中国养老保险制度,虽然它们对储蓄率的影响方向并不会发生改变,可是作用效果会减弱。同时此情形下养老保险缴费率对储蓄的影响为负。而通过数值模拟得到如下结论:根据目前我国国情,预期寿命、家庭赡养支出比、生育率、统筹账户税率以及个人账户税率对储蓄率的影响均为负,与此相反,个人账户挪用率对储蓄率的影响却为正。此外也得出在保证储蓄率不变的情形下,全面二胎政策的实施一方面会有效减轻子女因赡养父母所面临的压力,另一方面也可以有效缓解养老保险负担。
[Abstract]:Saving is not only closely related to the standard of living of residents, but also related to the future economic development of our country, so it is of great significance to study the saving rate of residents. For the resident savings rate, the acceleration of the aging process of the population and the development of China's endowment insurance system is one of the important factors affecting it, but what is the relationship between them and the resident savings rate? This is a problem worthy of further study. This paper first reviews the literature on the effect of population aging and pension insurance on savings, and on this basis, gives a related introduction to the classical theory of their influence on savings. Then it expounds the current situation of aging population, the reform stage of endowment insurance and the changing trend of residents' savings. Then, in the empirical analysis, we first construct the OLG model considering the aging population, and then construct the OLG model which includes the combination of pay-as-you-go model and individual account model in China. Through the empirical comparison of provincial panel data from 2001 to 2014, this paper analyzes the influence of the three core variables on the resident savings rate, such as old-age dependency ratio, life expectancy and contribution rate of old-age insurance. In contrast, in forecasting the future household savings rate, we extend the three generations overlapping model constructed earlier, taking into account the "filial piety culture" of our traditional culture. That is, to add the family pension model to the model, Through numerical simulation, this paper analyzes the influence of the family pension and the social pension on the household savings rate under the background of aging, and the influence of factors on the future savings rate under the comprehensive implementation of the two-child policy in China. Finally, we give some suggestions on population policy and pension insurance system, so that our country can reduce the savings rate in the future, thus expand domestic demand, promote consumption, and better stimulate economic growth. This paper analyzes the effect of aging population and endowment insurance on the saving rate of residents from two aspects: empirical research and numerical simulation. The empirical results show that the old-age dependency ratio can inhibit the savings rate without considering the old-age insurance, while life expectancy can promote the savings rate. If we consider China's pension insurance system, the direction of their impact on the savings rate will not change, but the effect will weaken. At the same time, the contribution rate of endowment insurance has negative effect on savings. According to the current situation of our country, life expectancy, family support expenditure ratio, fertility rate, overall account tax rate and personal account tax rate have negative effects on savings rate. The personal account misappropriation rate has a positive effect on the savings rate. In addition, under the condition that the savings rate remains unchanged, the implementation of the comprehensive two-child policy will effectively relieve the pressure on the children to support their parents on the one hand, and the burden of the old-age insurance on the other.
【学位授予单位】：华侨大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：C924.24;F832.22;F842.67

【参考文献】