超大城市人口调控困境的再思考

发布时间：2018-04-21 20:34

本文选题：人口调控 + 超大城市　；参考：《中国人口科学》2016年04期

【摘要】：文章基于中国人口普查、统计年鉴公布的数据,探讨了超大城市人口调控困境、原因及应对思路。研究结果表明,中国超大城市人口调控不同程度地面临人口规模、人口分布和人口活力困局。其原因可能在于相关部门尚未充分把握集经济、社会、管理于一体的人口系统思维,尚未充分明晰人口影响因素之间的层级关系,而且在人口调控问题上存在4个认识误区,即"减人"与"添秤"可同步推进、"拆市场"和"产业升级"即"减人口"、人口调控就是"减规模"、人口调控就是针对个人施策。基于上述分析,文章提出以下政策建议:(1)建立"条件约束型"人口决策机制,以控制城市开发强度;(2)建立居民基本台账系统,以实现人口管理和服务的统一;(3)建立人口结构的市场调节机制,以确保城市的生机活力;(4)打造人口圈层分布的规划格局,以带动人口向外疏解;(5)树立家庭需求整体谋划的调控理念,以提升人口流出的稳定性。
[Abstract]:Based on the data published in China's census and statistical yearbook, this paper discusses the plight, causes and countermeasures of population control in megacities. The results show that population regulation and control in Chinese megacities face difficulties in population size, population distribution and population vitality. The reasons may lie in the fact that the relevant departments have not fully grasped the thinking of the population system which integrates economy, society and management, and has not fully clarified the hierarchical relationship among the factors affecting the population, and there are four misunderstandings on the issue of population regulation and control. That is to say, "reducing people" and "adding scale" can advance synchronously, "demolishing market" and "upgrading of industry" means "reducing population", population control is "reducing scale", and population control is aimed at individual. Based on the above analysis, this paper puts forward the following policy recommendations: 1) to establish a "conditional constraint" population decision-making mechanism to control the intensity of urban development and to establish a basic accounting system for residents. In order to realize the unification of population management and service, the market regulation mechanism of population structure should be established to ensure the vitality of the city. (5) to set up the whole plan of family demand, and to promote the stability of population outflow.
【作者单位】：北京行政学院社会学教研部;
【基金】：北京市社会科学基金项目重大课题“北京人口规模调控决策研究”(编号14ZDA25)的阶段性成果
【分类号】：C924.2

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