吉林省人口可持续发展指标体系研究

发布时间：2018-04-23 21:43

本文选题：人口 + 可持续发展　；参考：《吉林大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：人口问题是我国实现可持续发展面临的首要问题,在对人口问题的研究和解决上,综合可持续发展观的理论及实践意义,研究在可持续发展的前提下,如何在保证社会、经济、资源、环境等各要素协调发展的基础上,解决人口问题,实现全面的、协调的、可持续的人口发展之路,显得尤为重要。吉林省作为我国地域区划中的重要省份,占地面积广、边境线较长,对吉林省人口可持续发展状况的把握直接影响了国内外地区可持续发展各方面的水平和程度,也关系到国家政策安排和社会的稳定,所以人口可持续发展指标体系研究有重大意义。人口可持续发展指标体系的构建能够实现对于吉林省人口可持续发展状态的量化评估和监测,采取定性与定量结合的方法,综合现有理论成果,利用模糊数学知识以及多元统计分析模型,完成对人口可持续发展程度的量化,得出合理的、科学的权重模型,量化地表达吉林省人口可持续发展程度。通过构建指标体系,结合选取的阈值标准应用模糊隶属度函数,使吉林省人口可持续发展量化从而进行比较、趋势等分析,即将抽象化的人口可持续发展问题指标化,最终得出可进行计算分析的数值用于研究和综合评价,根据层次分析法结合主成分分析法的计算结果,得出吉林省人口可持续发展状况的量化公式。由2005年到2015年吉林省的数据分析得到,吉林省人口可持续发展指标体系中,人口要素虽发展稳定,但仍存在问题和较大的提升空间;经济要素在波动中呈上升趋势且发展程度较好,但波动性较大,其稳定性是值得重视的;社会要素在稳定中上升,发展程度中等,社会保障和社会福利方面还有较大提升空间;资源环境可持续发展程度较高,但仍有波动,需要注重环境保护等方面因素。
[Abstract]:Population problem is the most important problem to realize sustainable development in our country. In the research and solution of population problem, it synthesizes the theoretical and practical significance of sustainable development concept, and studies how to ensure the society and economy under the premise of sustainable development. On the basis of the coordinated development of resources and environment, it is particularly important to solve the population problem and realize a comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable road of population development. Jilin Province, as an important province in the regional regionalization of our country, covers a wide area and has a long border. The sustainable development of population in Jilin Province has a direct impact on the level and degree of sustainable development in various areas at home and abroad. It is also related to national policy arrangement and social stability, so the study of population sustainable development index system is of great significance. The construction of population sustainable development index system can realize the quantitative evaluation and monitoring of the status of population sustainable development in Jilin Province, adopt the method of combining qualitative and quantitative analysis, and synthesize the existing theoretical results. By using fuzzy mathematical knowledge and multivariate statistical analysis model, the quantification of the sustainable development degree of population is completed, and a reasonable and scientific weight model is obtained to quantitatively express the sustainable development degree of population in Jilin Province. By constructing the index system and applying fuzzy membership function in combination with the selected threshold standard, the sustainable development of population in Jilin Province can be quantified and analyzed, such as the analysis of the trend, that is, the index of the abstract sustainable development of population. Finally, the numerical value which can be calculated and analyzed is used for research and comprehensive evaluation. According to the calculation results of AHP combined with principal component analysis, the quantitative formula for the sustainable development of population in Jilin Province is obtained. From 2005 to 2015, the data analysis of Jilin Province, Jilin Province population sustainable development indicators system, although the development of population elements are stable, but there are still problems and greater room for improvement; The economic factors show an upward trend in the fluctuation and the degree of development is good, but the stability of the economic elements is worthy of attention because of its high volatility, the social elements are rising in the stability, the degree of development is moderate, and there is still much room for improvement in the aspects of social security and social welfare. The degree of sustainable development of resources and environment is high, but there are still fluctuations, so it is necessary to pay attention to environmental protection and other factors.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：C924.2

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