我国人口素质及其对经济增长贡献率研究

发布时间：2018-04-26 19:31

本文选题：人口素质 + 综合评价　；参考：《南京财经大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：进入知识化、信息化时代的二十一世纪，经济的增长主要靠科学技术发展推动，而科技发展离不开高素质人才。未来世界的竞争，归根结底是高素质人才的竞争。要保持经济持续发展，就必须全面提高人口素质。作为人口大国，，我国人口增长和自然资源缺乏是经济发展中的一个基本矛盾，而解决这一矛盾的关键在于在控制人口数量的同时，提高人口素质，用人力资本代替自然资本。人口素质对区域经济的发展发挥着不可替代的作用，我们要认识到提高人口素质对经济增长有多大促进作用，以便更好地制定相应措施不断提高人口素质，保证我国各地区经济的持续、稳定发展。本文主要分为四个部分。第一部分：借鉴国内外学者关于人口素质的研究，结合我国国情以及人口素质的统计分析要求，明确人口素质的内涵；建立包含平均预期寿命、人口自然增长率、人均受教育年限、人口性别比、人口抚养比等在内的十四个指标，构成的人口素质综合评价指标体系，并就我国当前人口素质的基本情况，从数量、结构等方面进行描述性分析。第二部分：搜集我国人口素质各个指标1989-2008年的统计数据，运用主成分分析法从十四个人口素质指标中提取两个主成分来综合反映各指标信息，并根据主成分得分及权重计算人口素质综合评价值，以此反映我国人口素质近年来的变化情况。第三部分：选取能够全面反映经济总体发展状况的七个经济指标，用主成分方法提取两个主成分，并将其与人口素质主成分作典型相关分析；构建经济增长模型，将人口素质变量引入计量模型，测算人口素质提高对经济增长的贡献率。第四部分：根据上述研究结果，提出促进人口素质提高、为经济发展储备人才资源的政策建议。
[Abstract]:In the 21 century of the age of knowledge and information, the economic growth is mainly promoted by the development of science and technology, and the development of science and technology can not be separated from high quality talents. The competition of the future world, in the final analysis, is the competition of high-quality talents. To maintain sustainable economic development, we must comprehensively improve the quality of the population. As a large country with large population, the population growth and the lack of natural resources in our country is a basic contradiction in economic development. The key to solve this contradiction lies in improving the quality of the population while controlling the population quantity and replacing natural capital with human capital. The quality of the population plays an irreplaceable role in the development of the regional economy. We should realize how much the improvement of the quality of the population can promote economic growth, so as to better formulate corresponding measures to continuously improve the quality of the population. To ensure sustained and stable economic development in various regions of China. This paper is divided into four parts. The first part: draw lessons from the research on population quality of domestic and foreign scholars, combine with the national conditions of our country and the statistical analysis requirements of population quality, make clear the connotation of population quality, build up to include average life expectancy, natural growth rate of population, The comprehensive evaluation index system of population quality, which is composed of fourteen indicators, including the number of years of education per capita, the sex ratio of the population and the ratio of population dependency, etc., and based on the basic situation of the current population quality in our country, from the perspective of the quantity, Structure and other aspects of descriptive analysis. The second part: collect the statistical data of every index of population quality in China from 1989 to 2008, and use principal component analysis method to extract two principal components from fourteen population quality indicators to reflect the information of each index synthetically. The comprehensive evaluation value of population quality is calculated according to the score and weight of principal component, so as to reflect the change of population quality in China in recent years. The third part: select seven economic indicators that can reflect the overall economic development, extract two principal components by principal component method, and make canonical correlation analysis between them and the principal component of population quality, and construct the economic growth model. The population quality variable is introduced into the econometric model to calculate the contribution rate of the population quality improvement to the economic growth. The fourth part: according to the above research results, the author puts forward some policy suggestions to promote the improvement of population quality and reserve human resources for economic development.
【学位授予单位】：南京财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：C92-05

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