中国生育率转变的人口效应分析

发布时间：2018-04-28 21:28

本文选题：生育率转变 + 人口效应　；参考：《浙江大学》2010年博士论文

【摘要】：对近乎封闭的中国人口系统而言,不同时期人口状态(指人口总量、年龄构成等)的存续及演化具有历史连贯性和继承性,与前期生育、死亡等因素存有严格的逻辑关系。全面、直观地比较生育率因素与死亡等非生育率因素在人口总量变动、人口年龄构成变动方面差异影响及其时效性分布特征,量化分析不同时期的人口增长惯性和年龄结构变动惯性,可为直观解读现阶段及未来中国人口格局成因,科学认识未来时期人口变化内在因素提供依据。本项研究通过新构建的比较人口方案,以“生育保持更替水平、死亡等保持期初水平不变”特殊人口情境为比较对象,重新构建并验证生育率变动的人口效应分析程式,以及历史时期人口变动的滞后人口效应分析程式,所得到的分时间序列分布的人口效应数值,可为全面、直观地解读人口状态与生育率变动之间的逻辑关系,以及综合评估阶段性生育率变动在人口发展中影响。本项研究主要内容,包括四个方面：一、基于稳定人口理论,比较人口预测法等形式人口学方法,构建并验证了人口效应分析程式；二、以中国人口为研究对象,量化分析不同时期人口变动的滞后人口效应,和不同阶段生育率变动的人口效应；三、量化分析生育率转变时期城乡差异、生育政策干预在中国人口发展历程中影响；四、揭示对未来人口变动的认知所包含的不确定性。中国生育率转变的人口效应分析,可概述为以下几个方面：一、1972年之前历史时期人口变动形成的人口总量增长惯性,将持续影响至2027年前后,是中国人口总量变动的主要动力源,它潜在地“铸就”了未来峰值人口的规模在人口年龄构成方面,既“铸就”了1982～2027期间低抚养比、低老年抚养比,也有力地延缓了2027年前中国人口老龄化进程。二、生育率转变时期(1972-2000)人口变动使未来潜在的人口规模提高10%,而对21世纪前半叶老年系数变动、老年抚养比变动方面的影响甚小；但是,它加速了21世纪中后期人口老化进程,“提升”了届时的老年抚养比。三、在生育率转变时期的“生育率变动”是21世纪中叶之前中国人口总量变动的主要的潜在动力源；其人口年龄结构效应,呈波动变化,在百年内消逝。它有力地延缓20世纪末期与21世纪初叶的人口老化进程,并减低了同期老年抚养比,提升了21世纪中后期人口老龄化峰值和老年抚养比峰值；它既是现阶段形成“人口红利”的积极因素,也是未来时期“人口负债”的动力源之一。与生育率因素不同,该时期死亡等因素变动的人口规模效应甚小,主要表现为通过延长人口预期寿命,影响人口年龄构成这种作用将会持续地延续。基于中国人口效应的量化分析,本文得出的主要理论观点及其政策含义是： (1)生育率变动在人口总量变动方面的人口规模效应,在不同时段历史时期人口变动、阶段性生育率变动,有不同的表现,共同的特征是：这种效应将长期存在,最终将决定该人口能够在多大规模上静止下来,进而长期影响该人口赖以生存与发展的经济社会和资源环境。假定生育率转变后,恢复到更替水平,以实现零增长是宏观层面的理想目标,那么转变期生育水平的高低及其持续时间的长短对人口规模的影响,将伴随这个人口到永远。因此,考虑到影响的久远性,生育率转变的规模效应,应该置于最高战略层面加以对待,对生育率转变期的生育水平、回归时间施加影响,要考虑到更长远的未来。 (2)生育率变动在年龄构成变动方面的人口年龄结构效应,具有强时效性特征,共同的特征是具有双相性、双重极端性、阶段性。双相性是指：有正效应必有负效应,有负效应必有正效应。双重极端性是指：正效应越大,负效应也越大；反之负效应越大,正效应也将越大。阶段性是指：无论这种效应是正、是负,也无论这种效应如何极端,在时间上是长是短,都将在正效应和负效应交替波动中逐渐收敛,最终趋于消失。从这种意义上说,年龄结构效应对长期发展的影响力,要低于它的规模效应。因此,从更长远的角度着眼,制订人口发展战略和生育政策,应该兼顾规模效应和结构效应,而以规模效应优先。 (3)现阶段某一种人口状态,是以往多阶段、多因素人口效应长期积累的结果；某一阶段人口变动的人口效应,也会不同程度地影响到未来多阶段、多因素的发展。对于某种负面效应,不能简单化地归咎于一种原因。未来的老龄化高峰、抚养负担高峰(主要是老年抚养负担高峰),并不是20世纪80年代以来,相对偏紧的计划生育一种政策决定的。1972年以前的人口变动,就已经潜在地形成了构成这些高峰的一些基本因素,而在2040年之前,65岁以上老年人口已经出生。从这种意义上来说,放宽计划生育政策对减缓老龄化速度和程度的作用是有限的,想避免过度老龄化的构想更是一种如“水中之月”的幻觉。从战略的高度看,应对过度老龄化挑战,须多种手段。当然也包括计划生育政策的适时、适度的调整和完善。 (4)当前压倒性意见,几乎都认为低生育水平是“人口老化加深、人口红利消失、人口负债形成”的罪魁祸首。本文的研究表明,趋于低生育水平,即有利于人口红利形成,也促使人口负债形成,二者兼而有之。但它只是“人口老化加深、人口红利消失、人口负债形成”的因素之一。当然,生育水平也不是越低越好。过低、过高都不利于形成稳定社会、稳定发展的稳定的人口结构。使生育率回归并稳定于更替水平,是稳定发展的必然需要。即使如此,由于健康水平提高、预期寿命延长、死亡率下降等进步因素的主导作用,我们必须做好迎接老龄化程度和传统的抚养系数尽管是缓慢的、长期的,却是不断提高的准备。在这方面,生育政策宽向调整的作用是有限的。
[Abstract]:In the case of near - closed Chinese population system , the existence and evolution of population status ( referring to total population , age composition , etc . ) of different periods have historical continuity and inheritance , and have strict logical relationship with factors such as procreation and death .

This study rebuilds and verifies the population - effect analysis program of fertility fluctuation and the lag - population - effect analysis program of population fluctuation in the historical period by comparing the population - effect analysis program of population fluctuation and population - effect analysis program of population fluctuation in the historical period , and comprehensively and intuitively interprets the logic relation between population state and fertility change , and comprehensively evaluates the influence of the change of stage fertility rate in population development .

The main contents of this study include four aspects : 1 . Based on stable population theory , comparative population prediction method and other forms of demographic methods , the population effect analysis program is constructed and verified ;
Secondly , taking the population of China as the research object , quantitative analysis of the lag population effect of population fluctuation in different periods and the population effect of the change of fertility rate at different stages ;
3 . Quantify and analyze the difference of urban and rural difference during the transformation period of fertility rate and the effect of policy intervention on population development in China ;
IV . Revealing the uncertainty contained in the perception of future demographic changes . Population - effect analysis of fertility transition in China , which can be summarized in the following aspects :

First , the population growth inertia formed by the population change in the historical period before 1972 will continue to affect the main power source of China ' s total population change before and after 2027 years . It can " cast " the scale of the future peak population in the composition of population age , which not only " cast " the low dependency ratio during the period from 1982 to 2027 , but also effectively delays the process of population aging in China 2027 years ago .

Second , the change of fertility rate ( 1972 - 2000 ) makes the potential population increase by 10 % in the future , and has little effect on the change of the old coefficient of the half - leaf in the first half of the 21st century .
However , it accelerated the aging process of the mid - 21st century and " promoted " the age dependency ratio .

3 . The change of fertility rate during the period of fertility transformation is the main potential power source of China ' s total population change before the middle of the 21st century .
Its population age structure effect is in fluctuation and has died within a hundred years . It effectively delays the process of population aging in the end of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century , and reduces the old - age dependency ratio in the same period , and promotes the peak of aging population aging in the middle and later period of the 21st century and the peak - raising ratio of the old age ;
It is not only the positive factor of forming " demographic dividend " at present , but also one of the power sources of " population liability " in the future period .

Based on the quantitative analysis of population effect in China , the main theoretical viewpoint and its policy implication are as follows :

( 1 ) The population size effect of the change of the fertility rate in the population change is different from the population change and the stage fertility rate in different periods of time .

( 2 ) The population age structure effect of the change of the fertility rate in the age structure has the characteristics of strong timeliness , and the common characteristic is that it has two - phase , double - polarity and stage . The two - phase property means that there is positive effect , negative effect and positive effect . The double extreme property is that the larger the positive effect , the greater the negative effect .
On the contrary , the larger the negative effect , the greater the positive effect will be .

( 3 ) At present , a state of population is the result of long - term accumulation of multi - factor population effects .
The population effect of population change in a certain stage can also affect the development of multi - stage and multi - factor in the future . For some negative effects , it can not be easily attributed to one reason . In the future , the population change has potentially formed some basic factors that make up these peaks . In this sense , the relaxation of family planning policy has potentially formed some basic factors that make up these peaks . In this sense , the relaxation of family planning policy is a kind of illusion such as the " month of water " . From the height of the strategy , it is necessary to deal with the challenge of over - aging . It is also a timely and appropriate adjustment and improvement of family planning policy .

( 4 ) At present , it is considered that the low fertility level is one of the factors contributing to the formation of demographic ageing , the disappearance of the demographic dividend and the formation of the population liability . The study shows that the lower the fertility level is beneficial to the formation of the demographic dividend and the formation of the population liability .

【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2010
【分类号】：C924.2

【参考文献】