“全面放开二孩”政策对中国人口出生率的冲击与趋势探讨

发布时间：2018-04-28 23:23

本文选题：“全面放开二孩” + 人口出生率　；参考：《中国人口·资源与环境》2016年09期

【摘要】：从"单独二孩"政策到"全面放开二孩"政策,政府针对中国人口现实情况不断做出符合社会需求的政策调整,尽管有可能缓解长期以来计划生育政策导致的适龄劳动力短缺及"未富先老"等社会问题,但人口政策调整的长期效果却有待验证。为此,本文运用灰色预测模型和Leslis模型等方法,对"全面放开二孩"生育政策背景下中国未来人口出生率的冲击和波动趋势作出预测,并对"全面放开二孩"政策所带来的对生育率及人口年龄结构影响展开分析,对2016—2050年的出生率、人口总数及人口结构作出预测,最终发现"全面放开二孩"政策会促进人口结构相对优化,但不能从根本上扭转劳动力供求关系失衡和老龄化加剧的趋势。为防止落入人口超低生育率陷阱,适度抑制老龄化快速增长趋势,实现人口与社会经济全面协调发展,必须对现行的生育政策进行完善,短期内,应积极出台配套措施,全面贯彻"全面放开二孩"政策,积极应对老龄化趋势;长期内,应逐步过渡到自主生育政策,形成人口自然生长的均衡发展长效机制。
[Abstract]:From the policy of "two children alone" to "fully opening the two child" policy, the government has constantly made policy adjustments to meet the social needs of China's population reality, although it may alleviate the social problems such as the short term labor shortage and "not getting rich first" caused by the family planning policy for a long time, but the long-term effect of the adjustment of population policy remains to be tested. In this paper, using the grey prediction model and Leslis model, this paper forecasts the impact and fluctuation trend of China's future population birth rate under the background of "fully release two children", and analyzes the impact on the fertility rate and the population age structure caused by the policy of "fully releasing two children", and the birth rate from 2016 to 2050. The total population and the population structure are predicted, and finally the policy of "full opening of the two children" will promote the relative optimization of the population structure, but it can not fundamentally reverse the imbalance of labor supply and demand and the trend of increasing aging. In order to prevent the fall into the ultra-low fertility rate trap, the adaptability of the population will be suppressed and the population and society are realized. In an all-round and coordinated development of the economy, the current reproductive policy must be perfected. In the short term, the supporting measures should be actively introduced to fully implement the "two child free" policy and actively respond to the trend of aging. In the long run, it should be gradually transferred to the policy of self-reliance and a long-term mechanism of balanced development of population growth.

【作者单位】：安徽大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家社科基金教育科学项目“困境与出路:基于人口出生率波动的中国高等教育转型研究”(批准号:BIA130093)
【分类号】：C924.21

【相似文献】