土地开发影响下的杭州市区人口空间演变

发布时间：2018-04-29 00:22

本文选题：城镇化 + 工业化　；参考：《经济地理》2016年12期

【摘要】：在统计杭州市区2000—2009年10年间实施的土地开发项目(居住类、工业类、商业类)基础上,结合人口普查数据,以街道乡镇为最小单元,选取合适自变量,建立人口回归模型,利用二阶段最小平方法探寻影响人口变化的主要因素。结果发现,杭州市区居住用地和工业用地的大量开发促使市区常住人口大量增长,且居住用地的影响更为显著。在此基础上,依据人口与土地开发相关特征指标,借用SPSS系统聚类分析法对街道单元进行分类,从街道层面探讨土地开发给人口空间变化带来的不同影响。研究发现,土地开发促使杭州主城区外沿和副城地区形成人口快速增长圈;居住类用地开发促使主城区中心部分街道人口回升;工业类用地开发刺激东部组团人口增长;主城区外围土地开发将在未来进一步促进人口增长和蔓延。
[Abstract]:On the basis of statistics of land development projects (residential, industrial and commercial) implemented in Hangzhou urban area from 2000 to 2009, combined with census data, taking street towns as the smallest unit and selecting appropriate independent variables, a population regression model was established. The main factors influencing the population change are explored by using the two-stage minimum square method. The results show that a large number of residential land and industrial land in Hangzhou urban area promote a large increase of resident population, and the impact of residential land is more significant. On this basis, according to the related characteristics of population and land development, the street unit is classified by SPSS cluster analysis method, and the different effects of land development on population spatial change are discussed from the street level. It is found that land development promotes the formation of rapid population growth circle in the outer and secondary urban areas of Hangzhou; the development of residential land promotes the rise of population in the central streets of the main urban area; the industrial land use development stimulates the population growth in the eastern part of the region; The main urban periphery land development will further promote population growth and spread in the future.
【作者单位】：浙江大学建筑工程学院;浙江大学建筑与城市发展研究中心;
【分类号】：TU984.113;C924.2

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