人口老龄化、社会保障支出与财政负担

发布时间：2018-04-29 18:39

本文选题：人口老龄化 + 社会保障支出　；参考：《财政研究》2017年12期

【摘要】：本文基于当前中国社会保障发展背景研究了人口老龄化和社会保障支出对财政负担的影响。通过构建人口老龄化和社会保障支出影响财政负担的计量模型,利用1998-2015年的省级面板数据,采用系统广义矩估计(SYS-GMM),分别检验了全国范围及东、中、西部地区人口老龄化和社会保障支出对我国财政负担的影响。研究表明在控制其他因素不变的情况下,就全国范围、中西部地区而言,人口老龄化的加剧均显著增加了我国政府财政负担,而对于东部地区不显著;在控制其他因素不变的情况下,就全国范围、东中西部地区而言,社会保障支出的增加均显著增加了我国政府财政负担;在影响政府财政负担上,全国范围、东中西部地区的人口老龄化和社会保障支出均存在着显著的正向互补关系。最后,在研究的基础上提出缓解我国财政负担的一些建议。
[Abstract]:Based on the background of China's social security development, this paper studies the impact of population aging and social security expenditure on the financial burden. By constructing a measurement model of the impact of population aging and social security expenditure on the financial burden, and using the provincial panel data from 1998 to 2015, using the system generalized moment estimation (SYS-GMMN), the paper tests the national scope, the east and the middle, respectively. The influence of aging population and social security expenditure on China's financial burden. The study shows that the aggravation of population aging has significantly increased the financial burden of our government in the whole country and the central and western regions under the condition of controlling other factors, but it is not significant in the eastern region. Under the condition that other factors are not changed, the increase in social security expenditure has significantly increased the financial burden of our government in the whole country, in the eastern, western and western regions; in terms of affecting the financial burden of the government, it is nationwide. The aging population and social security expenditure in the east, west and west regions have significant positive complementary relationship. Finally, on the basis of the research, some suggestions are put forward to alleviate the financial burden of our country.
【作者单位】：江西财经大学财税与公共管理学院;中共中央党校研究生院;
【分类号】：C924.24;F812.45

【相似文献】