人口因素对我国住宅需求影响的实证研究

发布时间：2018-05-04 20:06

本文选题：住宅需求 + 人口因素　；参考：《湖南大学》2010年硕士论文

【摘要】：自1998年住宅分配货币化以来,住房问题越来越成为社会各界关注的热点问题。而住宅服务于人的基本属性则决定了人口因素对住宅需求的影响最直接,人口因素的变化对于住宅需求有着深远的影响。利用有限的土地资源,尤其是在保证18亿亩耕地红线不动摇的前提下,解决13亿人口的住房问题,是关乎国计民生的战略问题。因此,本文通过实证研究考察人口因素对住宅需求的影响。本文首先回顾了人口因素与住宅需求研究的相关进展,比较国内外的研究特点并总结基本的研究思路。其次阐述了住宅需求的相关理论和住宅市场的现状及存在的问题,同时对影响住宅需求的相关因素进行了分析,尤其是在总结以往研究的基础上将人口因素进一步细化为包含人口家庭结构、人口年龄结构与人口城乡结构在内的人口结构因素和人口自然增长与人口规模所反映的人口总量因素,重点分析以上人口特征的变化及其对住宅需求的影响。在实证方面,本文以1999-2008年我国各省面板数据为样本,构建住宅需求影响因素分析的线性模型,通过逐步回归分析法,对影响全国住宅需求的人口因素进行了量化分析。研究发现:在控制一般经济因素和政策因素的条件下,家庭户规模、非农人口所占比重和15-64岁人口数三个人口指标与住宅商品需求显著相关。由此,可以得到以下结论:住宅需求量会随着家庭的小型化和核心化而增加;城市化进程的持续也会推动城镇住宅需求量的上升;人口增长通过年龄余波效应和人口红利的作用影响住宅需求;未来一段时间内,人口因素仍将是住宅需求的推动力。文章最后针对研究结果和我国国情提出了相关的政策建议,以期促进房地产业健康、协调和可持续发展。
[Abstract]:Since the monetization of housing distribution in 1998, the housing problem has become a hot issue of social concern. The basic property of housing service to people determines the most direct impact of population factors on housing demand, and the change of population factors has a profound impact on housing demand. To solve the housing problem of 1.3 billion people is a strategic problem related to the national economy and people's livelihood under the premise of making use of limited land resources, especially on the premise that the red line of 1.8 billion mu of cultivated land will not waver. Therefore, this paper examines the impact of population factors on housing demand through empirical research. This paper first reviews the research progress of population factors and housing demand, compares the characteristics of the research at home and abroad and summarizes the basic research ideas. Secondly, it expounds the relevant theory of housing demand, the current situation and existing problems of housing market, and analyzes the related factors that affect housing demand. In particular, on the basis of summing up previous studies, the population factor is further refined to include the structure of the population family, The factors of population structure, such as population age structure and urban and rural population structure, and the total population factors reflected by natural population growth and population size are analyzed in this paper. The change of population characteristics and its influence on housing demand are analyzed. In the empirical aspect, taking the panel data from 1999 to 2008 as the sample, this paper constructs a linear model for the analysis of the influencing factors of housing demand, and through stepwise regression analysis, makes a quantitative analysis of the population factors that affect the housing demand in China. It is found that under the condition of controlling general economic factors and policy factors, the household size, the proportion of non-farm population and the number of population aged 15-64 are significantly related to the demand for housing commodities. Therefore, the following conclusions can be drawn: the demand for housing will increase with the miniaturization and core of the family, and the continuous urbanization will also promote the increase of the demand for housing in cities and towns; Population growth affects housing demand through the effect of age afterwave and demographic dividend. Population factors will still be the driving force of housing demand for some time to come. In the end, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions on the research results and the situation of our country, in order to promote the healthy, coordinated and sustainable development of the real estate industry.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2010
【分类号】：F293.3;C924.2

【参考文献】