中国人口生育模式的离散趋势研究

发布时间：2018-05-05 02:42

本文选题：生育模式 + 生育水平　；参考：《中国人口科学》2017年06期

【摘要】：文章参照已有死亡模式的研究方法和思路,通过国家和地区间比较探究中国人口生育模式离散趋势的转变规律,阐明其与生育水平转变的主要差异,以揭示中国人口生育行为的实质性转变进程。研究发现,中国人口生育模式的离散趋势在2005年以前相对稳定:既滞后于发达国家和地区生育模式转变的一般规律,也滞后于中国生育水平的转变进程。2005年以后,中国生育模式的离散趋势迅速达到发达国家和地区的水平,反映出中国人口生育行为在生育时间上的多样化转变。这表明中国的生育水平降至低生育水平约10年后,生育模式才基本达成与低生育水平的实质性匹配,也意味着2005年之后中国的低生育水平更可能是生育观念转变下育龄妇女生育意愿的真实反映。随着生育模式的进一步转变,长期来看中国生育水平仍存在下降风险。
[Abstract]:Referring to the research methods and ideas of the existing death patterns, this paper explores the changing law of the discrete trend of the population fertility pattern in China through the comparison between the countries and regions, and clarifies the main differences between it and the fertility level transformation. In order to reveal the Chinese population fertility behavior of the substantive transformation process. The study found that the discrete trend of fertility patterns in China was relatively stable before 2005: it lagged behind both the general law of fertility pattern transformation in developed countries and regions and the process of fertility transformation in China. The discrete trend of fertility patterns in China has rapidly reached the level of developed countries and regions, which reflects the diversification of fertility behavior in China. This shows that it was only about 10 years after China's fertility level dropped to a low fertility level that the fertility pattern basically reached a substantial match with the low fertility level. It also means that China's low fertility level after 2005 is more likely to be a true reflection of childbearing intention of women of childbearing age. With the further transformation of fertility model, there is still a risk of fertility decline in China in the long term.
【作者单位】：华中科技大学社会学院;
【基金】：华中科技大学2016年人文社科自主创新重大交叉项目“后独生子女政策时代的人口政策完善与计生部门职能转变”(编号:2016AD020)的阶段性成果
【分类号】：C924.2

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