我国人口素质对经济发展影响实证研究

发布时间：2018-05-05 20:51

本文选题：人口素质 + 经济发展　；参考：《河北经贸大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：当今社会已经迈入了知识经济的时代，过去那种依靠消耗自然资源与资本积累来发展经济的时代一去不复返。人们不禁意识到，人力资源，尤其是那些掌握了知识和技能的人才已经成为促进经济发展最重要的因素。人口素质的高低不仅影响人自身的发展，也决定着他所在国家或地区的综合实力和竞争力。对于我国而言，人口素质的提高还将有助于控制人口数量，把我国人口庞大的基本国情由劣势向优势转化。因此，对人口素质的研究越来越引起国内外学者的重视。目前，在定性研究与定量研究方面都取得了丰硕的成果。但是，运用面板数据模型，并且综合考虑思想道德素质与人口结构影响的研究还不多见。本文在前人研究的基础上进一步丰富了人口素质指标体系，选取多个指标衡量经济发展水平。然后，运用层次分析法对各指标赋权、计算综合得分，，按得分值对我国各省、市、自治区的人口素质与经济发展状况进行排名，并运用聚类分析把我国划分为四个层次的区域。最后，本文创新性的对不同层次的区域分别建立面板数据模型进行探讨，试求全面了解我国人口素质与经济发展的状况，有针对性的对不同区域采取不同途径提升人口素质提高，让它更好的促进当地经济发展。通过实证分析最后得到如下结论： 1、两次人口普查的十年间，我国各省、市、自治区的人口素质与经济发展水平均有不同程度的提高。但是，两极分化的趋势也愈加明显。东部地区明显高于中西部地区。 2、总体而言，人口素质对我国经济发展具有正向促进作用。但是，在某些地区人口素质的一些方面却与经济发展水平不相适应,阻碍着当地经济的发展。对于划分的四个层次而言，第一层次地区劳动技能素质与思想道德素质滞后于经济的发展；第二层次地区文化素质阻碍经济发展，有待提高；第三层次与第四层次地区也是劳动技能素质与思想道德素质滞后于经济的发展。因此，劳动技能素质和思想道德素质是影响我国经济发展的“较短板”，需要在以后的发展中特别注意提高。
[Abstract]:Nowadays, the society has entered the era of knowledge economy, and the past era of relying on the consumption of natural resources and the accumulation of capital to develop the economy is gone forever. People can't help but realize that human resources, especially those with knowledge and skills, have become the most important factors for economic development. The quality of the population not only affects the development of one's own, but also determines the comprehensive strength and competitiveness of his country or region. For our country, the improvement of population quality will also help to control the population number and transform the basic national conditions of our country's huge population from inferiority to superiority. Therefore, the study of population quality has attracted more and more attention of scholars at home and abroad. At present, both qualitative and quantitative studies have achieved fruitful results. However, using panel data model and considering the influence of ideological and moral quality and population structure is rare. On the basis of previous studies, this paper further enriches the index system of population quality and selects several indicators to measure the level of economic development. Then, we use AHP to give weight to every index, calculate the comprehensive score, rank the population quality and economic development of our provinces, cities and autonomous regions according to the score, and use cluster analysis to divide our country into four levels of regions. Finally, this paper innovatively discusses the establishment of panel data model in different levels of regions, and tries to understand the population quality and economic development of our country in an all-round way. Take different ways to improve the quality of the population in different regions, so that it can promote the local economic development. The conclusions are as follows: During the ten years of the two censuses, the population quality and economic development level of the provinces, cities and autonomous regions in China have been improved to varying degrees. However, the trend of polarization is becoming increasingly evident. The eastern region is obviously higher than the central and western regions. 2. Overall, the quality of the population has a positive effect on China's economic development. However, some aspects of population quality in some areas are incompatible with the level of economic development, hindering the development of local economy. For the four levels of division, the first level of labor skill quality and ideological and moral quality lags behind the economic development, the second level of regional cultural quality hinders the economic development, which needs to be improved. The third and fourth level areas also lag behind the economic development in terms of labor skill quality and ideological and moral quality. Therefore, the labor skill quality and the ideological and moral quality are the "short board" which affects the economic development of our country, which should be paid special attention to in the future development.
【学位授予单位】：河北经贸大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F224;F124.1;C924.24

【参考文献】