我国人口结构变化对房价影响的区域差异研究

发布时间：2018-05-06 17:23

本文选题：人口年龄结构 + 高等教育结构　；参考：《重庆大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：2004年以来，我国房价出现了全国性上涨，幅度大、范围广。住房是百姓生活的必需品，然而，现有的“高房价”已经成为非常严峻的社会经济问题和民生问题，“买房难”成为人们生活面对最主要的困难之一。学者们从不同的角度：土地制度、货币制度、投机以及城镇化等提出对推动我国住宅市场的迅猛发展的多种解释，但未有统一的结论。本文试图从人口结构的角度来解释房价快速上涨的原因，其中，人口结构特指人口年龄结构和教育结构。本文认为受过高等教育的青年是购买住宅欲望最为强烈的人群。因为毕业后，往往意味着要留在城市工作和生活，，拥有自己的住所则是最有归属感的体现。如果人口年龄结构里的青年人数增加，表示受高等教育的人口也在增加，而这很可能导致住宅市场的需求增加。从1998年实行住房制度改革以后，我国真正进入商品房时代，取消了福利分房，房地产业开始成为国民经济新增长点。同时，为解决1998年亚洲金融危机带来的经济疲软和就业压力，我国开始实行高等教育扩招，居民受高等教育越来越普及。从2004年开始我国第三波婴儿潮的人口逐步进入青年人群，本文认为人口年龄和高等教育结构的变化会增加我国住宅市场的需求，从而加剧房价的上涨。本文有别于大多数文章仅从年龄结构的角度探讨住房价格背后的人口因素，本文运用1999-2012年的面板数据研究我国人口结构、教育结构对我国三大经济板块住宅价格的影响。结果表明：第一，高等教育对我国住宅价格有积极影响，无论是普通住宅市场还是别墅市场，高等教育是解释我国住宅市场价格变化的重要因素，对我国中部影响最大，其影响高达7%-10%，影响最小的是我国东部，影响程度为3%-5%。第二，抚养比例对住宅价格的变化影响程度从东部到西部也呈依次递减趋势，且呈负相关关系；中国经济体制转型及阶段性的人口政策使得我国老年人口的增加并不会带来住宅价格的显著下降。第三，人口增长率与人均GDP对我国住宅价格产生明显的正效果，而城市化率对住宅价格的影响不明确、不显著。“积极稳妥推进城镇化，着力提高城镇化质量”是我国推进城镇化工作的当务之急。
[Abstract]:Since 2004, our country house price appeared the national rise, the range is big, the scope is wide. Housing is a necessity of people's life, however, the existing "high housing price" has become a very serious social and economic problems and livelihood problems, "difficult to buy a house" has become one of the most important difficulties people face in life. Scholars from different angles: land system, monetary system, speculation and urbanization, put forward a variety of explanations to promote the rapid development of China's housing market, but there is no unified conclusion. This paper attempts to explain the reasons for the rapid rise in house prices from the point of view of population structure, in which the population structure refers to the age structure of the population and the structure of education. This article thinks that the youth with higher education are the most eager to buy a house. Because after graduation, often means to stay in the city to work and live, have their own home is the most sense of belonging. If the number of young people in the age structure of the population increases, it means that the population of higher education is also increasing, which is likely to lead to an increase in demand in the housing market. Since the reform of housing system was carried out in 1998, our country has really entered the age of commercial housing, and has abolished the distribution of welfare housing, and the real estate industry has begun to become a new growth point of the national economy. At the same time, in order to solve the economic weakness and employment pressure brought by the Asian financial crisis in 1998, our country began to carry out the expansion of higher education, and the higher education for residents became more and more popular. Since 2004, the third wave of baby boomers in China has gradually entered the youth population. This paper argues that the change of population age and higher education structure will increase the demand of housing market in our country, thus aggravate the rise of house prices. This paper is different from most articles in discussing the population factors behind housing price only from the angle of age structure. This paper uses panel data from 1999 to 2012 to study the effect of population structure and education structure on housing prices in three economic sectors of China. The results show that: first, higher education has a positive impact on the housing price of our country. Whether it is the ordinary housing market or the villa market, higher education is an important factor to explain the change of housing price in our country, and it has the greatest impact on the central part of our country. Its influence is as high as 7-10, and the least is in the east of our country, the influence degree is 3-5. Secondly, the influence of dependency ratio on housing price also decreases from east to west, and has a negative correlation. China's economic system transformation and population policy make the increase of the elderly population will not bring about a significant decline in housing prices. Third, population growth rate and per capita GDP have obvious positive effects on housing prices in China, while the impact of urbanization rate on housing prices is not clear and significant. "actively and steadily promoting urbanization and improving the quality of urbanization" is the urgent task of promoting urbanization in China.
【学位授予单位】：重庆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：C924.24;F299.23;F224

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