劳动参与率变化与人口红利效应研究

发布时间：2018-05-07 15:07

本文选题：人口红利 + 劳动参与率　；参考：《西南政法大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：人口红利作为重要的经济增长推动力量，为我国改革开放以后经济的快速发展做出了重要贡献。我国老年人口比重在2001年就已经达到了人口老龄化指标7%的临界值，进入21世纪后该指标持续上涨，我国人口结构已转变进入后“人口红利”期。保持高水平的劳动参与率是人口红利效应发挥作用的重要前提，然而我国目前最新劳动参与率现状如何，其水平是否合理，在人口红利日渐减少的情况下如何通过劳动参与方面的政策进行宏观调控，基于劳动参与率的人口红利效应是否已经得到最大化释放等问题均有待进一步解答。本文带着这些问题，对我国的劳动年龄人口比重、人口负担系数和劳动参与率等人口红利相关指标做了系统的梳理分析，，并采用面板经验数据对我国劳动参与率的经济增长效应做了实证研究。通过对我国过去30多年的统计数据梳理，本文发现：劳动年龄人口数量持续增加，但劳动年龄人口比重却在2010年达到顶峰后开始呈现出下降趋势；老年人口数量及其占总人口比重在过去相当长的时间里一直保持缓慢上升的态势，但尽管我国老年抚养比呈现出持续的缓慢上升过程，在少儿抚养比较大降幅的强力拉动下，总抚养比整体上仍然保持了一个持续下降的趋势；综合过去30多年人口年龄结构转变数据，不难预测我国将在2030年-2035年之间达到人口红利与人口负债的关键转折点。在1990-2012年期间，我国年均劳动参与率水平保持在75.46%的高水平。西部地区的劳动参与率高于东部和中部地区，虽然目前总劳动参与率以及分性别的劳动参与率在国际上均较高于高收入国家，但是整体上劳动参与率尤其是女性劳动参与率呈现出明显的下降趋势。基于经验面板数据的实证结果发现劳动参与率对经济增长具有正向促进作用，其人口红利效应较为明显，其中中部地区劳动参与率对经济增长的促进作用最大，西部和东部次之。因此，我国宏观政策应着重于提高劳动参与率来最大化释放人口红利效应，鉴于目前我国劳动参与率保持在较高水平，通过劳动参与率来提高人口红利效应的政策在短期内效果有限，应积极采取提高人力资本积累水平、完善计划生育政策和加强劳动力在区域间有效流动等措施。
[Abstract]:As an important driving force of economic growth, demographic dividend has made an important contribution to the rapid economic development after China's reform and opening up. In 2001, the proportion of the elderly population in China has reached the critical value of 7% of the population aging index. After entering the 21st century, the index has continued to rise, and the population structure of our country has changed into the post-" demographic dividend "period. Maintaining a high level of labor participation rate is an important prerequisite for the effect of demographic dividend. However, what is the current situation of the latest labor force participation rate in China, and whether its level is reasonable or not? In the case of declining population dividend, how to carry out macro-control through the policy of labor participation, whether the effect of demographic dividend based on labor participation rate has been maximized has to be further answered. With these problems, this paper makes a systematic analysis of the relevant indicators of the demographic dividend, such as the proportion of the working-age population, the population burden coefficient and the labor force participation rate. Using panel empirical data, this paper makes an empirical study on the economic growth effect of labor force participation rate in China. By combing the statistics of our country in the past 30 years, this paper finds that the number of working-age population increases continuously, but the proportion of working-age population begins to decrease after reaching its peak in 2010; The number of the elderly population and its proportion in the total population have been increasing slowly in the past quite long time, but although the old age dependency ratio of our country has shown a continuous slow rising process, under the strong pull of the relatively big drop of the children's upbringing, the number of the elderly population and its proportion in the total population have been increasing slowly for a long time. The total dependency ratio as a whole has maintained a continuous downward trend, and it is not difficult to predict the key turning point of demographic dividend and population debt between 2030 and 2035 by synthesizing the data of population age structure transformation in the past 30 years or so. From 1990 to 2012, the average annual labor participation rate in China remained at a high level of 75.46%. The labour force participation rate in the western region is higher than that in the eastern and central regions, although at present the overall labour force participation rate, as well as the gender labour force participation rate, is higher internationally than in high-income countries, However, the overall labor force participation rate, especially the female labor force participation rate, shows an obvious downward trend. The empirical results based on empirical panel data show that the labor force participation rate has a positive effect on economic growth, and its demographic dividend effect is more obvious, in which the central region labor force participation rate has the greatest role in promoting economic growth. The west and east came second. Therefore, the macro policy of our country should focus on increasing the labor force participation rate to maximize the effect of releasing the demographic dividend. In view of the fact that the labor force participation rate in our country is maintained at a relatively high level at present, The policy of increasing the effect of demographic dividend through labor participation rate has limited effect in the short term. Measures should be taken to improve the level of human capital accumulation, improve the policy of family planning and strengthen the effective flow of labor force among regions.
【学位授予单位】：西南政法大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F249.2;C924.24

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