上海市人口老龄化的空间分布及演化特征研究

发布时间：2018-05-09 02:44

  本文选题：人口老龄化 + ESDA-GIS　； 参考：《上海经济研究》2016年08期

【摘要】：该文采用探索性空间数据分析方法分析了上海市人口老龄化的区域差异,具体考察了1990-2010年上海各区县人口老龄化的时空演变特征,并对其影响因素进行了探讨。研究结果表明:老年人口区域分布不均衡,老年人口比重有明显的圈层结构特征;老年人口分布存在显著的正向自相关关系,但空间集聚趋势有所减弱;人口老龄化空间差异的不确定因素的影响程度在减弱,而空间结构特征引起的人口老龄化变异程度在增强,人口老龄化的总体空间差异趋于缓和。1990-2000年间上海市各区县以向更深程度的“老龄化”方向转移为主,而在2000-2010年间有向“年轻化”转移的趋势。人口老龄化的空间差异是受自然、人口、经济、社会、文化等多因素综合作用的结果,各类因素在不同的发展阶段对不同区县的人口老龄化有不同的影响方向和力度。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the regional difference of population aging in Shanghai is analyzed with the method of exploratory spatial data analysis. The spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of the population aging in each district and county in Shanghai for 1990-2010 years are investigated and the influencing factors are discussed. The results show that the regional distribution of the elderly population is unbalanced and the proportion of the elderly population has a distinct circle. There is a significant positive autocorrelation in the population distribution of the elderly, but the trend of spatial agglomeration is weakened; the influence degree of the uncertainty factors of the spatial difference of population aging is weakened, and the degree of population aging variation caused by the spatial structure characteristics is increasing, and the overall spatial difference of population aging tends to ease.1990-2000. In the period of 2000-2010 years, the districts and counties in Shanghai were mainly transferred to the direction of "aging", and the trend of "Youth" was transferred during the period of 2000-2010 years. The spatial difference of population aging was the result of many factors, such as nature, population, economy, society, culture and so on. The aging of the mouth has different influence direction and strength.

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本文编号：1864244