新经济地理学框架下人口分布对经济增长的影响效应——全球126个国家空间面板数据的证据:1992—2012

发布时间：2018-05-12 05:44

本文选题：人口地理分布 + 集聚与拥挤　；参考：《经济地理》2017年10期

【摘要】：考虑到空间自相关在人口分布和经济增长中存在的普遍性,基于新经济地理学地区溢出模型,在理论上纳入空间因素,在实证上应用消除空间依赖性的空间计量方法,分析了人口分布对经济增长的影响效应。主要结论有:(1)空间自相关检验显示,人口密度和经济增长都存在显著的空间依赖性;(2)基于新经济地理学模型证实人口分布对经济增长既有集聚效应也有拥挤效应,理论上两者存在倒"U"型关系;(3)通过全球126个国家1992—2012年空间面板数据验证了人口密度与经济增长倒"U"型的关系。(4)本文弥补了既有研究缺乏空间视角、忽视空间自相关性而结论有失严谨的不足;未来相关研究中,应该多加考虑空间计量方法,发挥地理和空间视角的优势。
[Abstract]:Considering the universality of spatial autocorrelation in population distribution and economic growth, based on the regional spillover model of new economic geography, the spatial factors are included in theory, and the spatial measurement method to eliminate spatial dependence is applied empirically, The effect of population distribution on economic growth is analyzed. The main conclusions are: 1) the spatial autocorrelation test shows that both population density and economic growth are spatially dependent. (2) based on the new economic geography model, it is proved that population distribution has both agglomeration and crowding effects on economic growth. Theoretically, there is an inverted "U" type relationship between them. (3) the spatial panel data of 126 countries in the world from 1992 to 2012 verify the relationship between population density and the inverted "U" pattern of economic growth. This paper makes up for the lack of spatial perspective in the existing research. In the future, spatial measurement methods should be taken into account to give full play to the advantages of geography and spatial perspective.
【作者单位】：江西财经大学生态经济研究院;
【基金】：江西省社会科学“十三五”(2016)规划项目(16SH11) 中国博士后科学基金面上项目(2016M602080) 国家社会科学基金重大项目(2015YZD16)
【分类号】：C92-05;F113

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