1990年以来江苏省人口空间格局与演化机理研究

发布时间：2018-05-13 22:16

本文选题：人口密度 + 空间格局演化　；参考：《南京师范大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：以江苏省为例,论文从人口密度空间格局、人口城市化空间格局、空间关联性分析、不均衡性和重心迁移分析以及人口偏移增长分析等角度,选取1990年、2000年和2010年3个时间断面,以县域为研究单元,分析了1990年以来江苏省人口空间格局的基本特征与演变趋势。基于研究结果,采用主成分分析和地理加权回归分析探讨了江苏省人口空间格局变动的演化机理和驱动机制,并对未来江苏人口格局的发展态势做一初步判断,并将江苏省未来人口格局划分为4个方阵。结果表明：江苏省人口密度有“南高北低”的空间特征,人口密度的高低与经济发展水平相对应。基于江苏省现状人口城市化的四种类型,将人口城市化的空间格局划分为南部区、中部区和北部区。江苏省的人口分布存在着一定的空间关联,长江沿岸地区、东南沿海地区和环太湖地区形成空间人口密度高的集聚区；在苏北平原形成人口密度低的集聚区；随着时间的推移,集聚趋势在不断增强。苏北各市辖区因经济发展水平相对苏北其他县域较高,使得人口不断向这里聚集,从而与周围地区形成高低集聚；处于高高区域和低低区域过渡地带的县域因受发达地区的辐射较小,与周围地区形成低高集聚。江苏省人口密度高值区呈现明显的沿江化、沿海化和环湖化。在总体格局保持相对稳定的情况下,落入高高集聚区的县域单元数量先不变后减少,落入低低集聚区的县域单元数量不断增加。江苏省人口分布不均衡性显著,且不均衡趋势不断加强,江苏省人口重心逐渐向省域东南方向迁移。近20年来江苏省人口增长速度有所提升,苏南和苏北地区人口增长速度加快,集聚人口能力增强,而苏中地区人口集聚能力减弱。影响江苏省人口格局演化的主要因素体现在5个方面：历史发展基础,社会生活水平,经济发展水平,人口自然增长,区域发展政策。苏南和苏中地区的人口增长主要表现为机械增长而苏北地区则表现为人口的自然增长。基于上述研究结论,针对目前存在的问题与挑战提出了相应的对策。研究成果为各级政府制定经济社会发展规划等提供参考。
[Abstract]:Taking Jiangsu Province as an example, the paper analyzes the spatial pattern of population density, the spatial pattern of population urbanization, the spatial correlation analysis, the analysis of disequilibrium and barycenter migration, and the analysis of population offset growth. Three time sections in 1990, 2000 and 2010 were selected to analyze the basic characteristics and evolution trend of population spatial pattern in Jiangsu Province since 1990. Based on the research results, this paper discusses the evolution mechanism and driving mechanism of population spatial pattern change in Jiangsu Province by using principal component analysis and geographical weighted regression analysis, and makes a preliminary judgment on the development situation of population pattern in Jiangsu Province in the future. The future population pattern of Jiangsu Province is divided into 4 squares. The results show that the population density in Jiangsu Province has the spatial characteristics of "high in the south and low in the north", and the population density corresponds to the level of economic development. Based on the four types of population urbanization in Jiangsu Province, the spatial pattern of population urbanization is divided into the southern region, the central region and the northern region. The population distribution of Jiangsu Province has a certain spatial correlation, the Yangtze River coastal area, the southeast coastal area and the Taihu Lake area form the high spatial population density agglomeration area; in the northern Jiangsu plain, the population density is low; with the passage of time, The trend of agglomeration is increasing. Because the level of economic development is higher than other counties in northern Jiangsu, the population is gathered here constantly, thus forming high and low agglomeration with the surrounding areas. The county area in the transition zone of high and low regions is low and high concentration due to the small radiation from developed regions. The high population density areas of Jiangsu Province are obvious along the river, coastal and lagoon. Under the condition that the overall situation remains relatively stable, the number of county units falling into high agglomeration areas first remains unchanged and then decreases, and the number of county units falling into low agglomeration areas increases continuously. The population distribution of Jiangsu Province is obviously unbalanced, and the trend of unbalance is constantly strengthened, and the population center of gravity of Jiangsu Province is gradually moving to the southeast of the province. In the past 20 years, the population growth rate of Jiangsu Province has been improved, the population growth rate of southern and northern Jiangsu has been accelerated, and the agglomeration capacity has been strengthened, while the population agglomeration capacity in central Jiangsu has been weakened. The main factors affecting the evolution of population pattern in Jiangsu Province are reflected in five aspects: historical development basis, social living standard, economic development level, natural population growth, and regional development policy. The population growth in southern and central Jiangsu is mainly characterized by mechanical growth and natural population growth in northern Jiangsu. Based on the above conclusions, the paper puts forward corresponding countermeasures to the existing problems and challenges. The research results provide reference for governments at all levels to formulate economic and social development plans.
【学位授予单位】：南京师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：C92-05

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