人口结构变迁与经常账目余额

发布时间：2018-05-16 12:27

本文选题：人口结构 + 经常账目　；参考：《北京大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：自1994年以来，中国出现了连续18年的经常账目盈余，对这一现象的解释学者众说纷纭，包括汇率操纵说、出口政策说等。值得注意的是，在国际上中国的经常账目不平衡并非特例，例如日本在过去的22年连续出现经常账目盈余，而美国则在过去10年呈现经常账目赤字。面对长期持续的经常账目不平衡，本文尝试从人口结构变迁的角度给出一个解释。通过将幼年抚养比、老年抚养比引入模型，，本文提出一个基于戴蒙德模型的三期世代交替模型，对经常账目余额进行定性分析，并利用1990年至2011年全球110个国家的强平衡面板数据进行实证定量验证。我们得到人口结构对经常账目余额有显著影响的证据，发现中国抚养比的变化可以解释16.6%经常账目余额占GDP比重的变动。本文进一步借助脉冲响应图观察抚养比对经常账目余额的动态影响，发现老年抚养比的影响较为长期，幼年抚养比则更加短期。二者均为负向影响。
[Abstract]:Since 1994, China has experienced 18 years of regular account surpluses. The interpretations of this phenomenon vary, including exchange rate manipulation, export policy and so on. It is worth noting that the international current account imbalance is not a special case in China, such as the continuous current account surplus in Japan in the past 22 years, while the United States is in the United States. In the past 10 years, the current account deficit is present. In the face of persistent current account imbalance, this paper tries to give an explanation from the perspective of demographic transition. By introducing the young age dependency ratio and the old age dependency ratio, this paper presents a three generation alternation model based on Diamond model, which is a qualitative analysis of the balance of the current account. And using the strong balance panel data from 110 countries of the world from 1990 to 2011, the empirical quantitative verification is carried out. We get evidence that the population structure has a significant impact on the balance of the current account. It is found that the change of the Chinese dependency ratio can explain the change in the proportion of the 16.6% regular account balance in GDP. This article further uses the impulse response map to observe the maintenance. Compared with the dynamic balance of the current account, it is found that the influence of the elderly dependency ratio is longer, while the infant dependency ratio is more short-term. The two are all negative.

【学位授予单位】：北京大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：C924.2;F752

【参考文献】