中国人口老龄化水平的时空差异与收敛性检验

发布时间：2018-05-23 08:33

本文选题：人口老龄化 + 时空差异　；参考：《西北人口》2017年04期

【摘要】：当前中国正在迎来"银发浪潮",老龄化作为人口转变最重要的后果之一,是我国当前及今后较长时期内经济社会发展的新常态和基本国情。该文利用最近3次人口普查获得的资料,对我国省级层面的老龄化时空差异特征与变化规律进行研究。结果表明:(1)1990年以来我国老年人口规模增长较快,老龄化水平存在明显的省际差异,总体呈现东部最高、中部次之、西部最低的空间梯度特征,差异程度随时间变化不断增加;(2)各地区老龄化分布并非表现出完全的随机性,而是在总体上呈现出一定的空间集聚性,老龄化水平较高(低)的地区相对地趋于和较高(低)水平的地区相邻,空间集聚性随时间变化有所弱化;(3)老龄化水平的时空变化呈现出稳健的条件收敛趋势,地区老龄化指数的增加速度与其初始水平负相关,初始水平较高(低)地区的增速普遍低(高)于初始水平较低(高)的地区,未来省际差异预期不断缩小,收敛速度随时间变化不断提升。
[Abstract]:As one of the most important consequences of population transformation, aging is the new normal and basic national conditions of economic and social development in China at present and in a long period in the future. Based on the data obtained from the recent three population censuses, this paper studies the temporal and spatial characteristics and changes of aging at the provincial level in China. The results show that the size of the elderly population in China has increased rapidly since 1990, and the aging level of China has obvious inter-provincial differences, showing the spatial gradient characteristics of the highest in the east, the second in the middle, and the lowest in the west. The degree of difference increases with time. (2) the distribution of aging in different regions is not completely random, but shows a certain spatial agglomeration as a whole. The spatial agglomeration of higher (low) aging level is weakened with the change of time.) the temporal and spatial variation of aging level shows a steady conditional convergence trend, while the aging level is relatively close to the higher (low) level area, and the spatial agglomeration is weakened with the change of time and space. The increase rate of the regional aging index is negatively correlated with its initial level. The growth rate of the initial high (low) regions is generally lower (higher) than that of the initial low (high) regions, and the future inter-provincial differences are expected to decrease. The rate of convergence increases with time.
【作者单位】：华中师范大学城市与环境科学学院;华中师范大学可持续发展研究中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(编号:41301187)
【分类号】：C924.24

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