藏北高原重点生态功能区人口迁移趋势及对城镇化格局影响

发布时间：2018-05-23 13:51

本文选题：人口迁移 + 城镇化　；参考：《山地学报》2014年04期

【摘要】：近10年来藏北高原人口规模不断扩大,由36.58万增长至46.24万,年均增长率为2.37%,而理论承载量仅为38.12万人。城镇化率增长缓慢,仅由7.65%增长至16.28%,二者发展不均衡。除城镇人口内生增长规模不足和乡城人口结构转变乏力外,人口迁移是重要影响因素。基于该区域主体功能定位和发展方向,计算城镇化空间变异系数、人口迁移活跃程度、人口迁移与城镇化的弹性系数。结果表明:1.2000—2012年藏北高原县域城镇化差异度由29.63%扩大至46.75%,城镇化发展的不均衡性增强,那曲、安多的重点小城镇城镇化发展水平要快于其他地区。2.总迁移率由6.64%提高到8.49%,人口迁移总体活跃程度增强,由非活跃区转变为活跃区的县域明显增多。3.人口迁入率每提高1%,可支撑城镇化率提高4.21%,人口迁移对城镇化影响显著。4.该区域主体功能定位要求将过载人口逐步转移,当前人口迁移以净流入为主的趋势与之不符,需要调整人口发展政策,引导过载人口向重点城镇和重点开发区转移。
[Abstract]:In the past 10 years, the population of the northern Tibetan plateau has been expanding from 365800 to 462400, with an average annual growth rate of 2.37, while the theoretical carrying capacity is only 381200. The urbanization rate grew slowly, from 7.65% to 16.28%. Population migration is an important factor except for the insufficient endogenous growth of urban population and the weak transition of rural population structure. Based on the function orientation and development direction of the main body in the region, the spatial variation coefficient of urbanization, the active degree of population migration, and the elastic coefficient of population migration and urbanization are calculated. The results show that: 1. From 2000 to 2012, the differential degree of urbanization in the county area of the northern Tibetan Plateau expanded from 29.63% to 46.75, and the imbalance of urbanization development increased. The development level of key small urbanization in Naqu and Ando was faster than that in other regions. The total migration rate increased from 6.64% to 8.49%, and the overall activity of population migration increased, and the number of counties changed from inactive area to active area increased significantly. Each increase in the rate of population migration can support the increase of urbanization rate by 4.21%, and the impact of population migration on urbanization is significant. 4. 4%. The functional orientation of the main body in this region requires the gradual transfer of overloaded population. The current trend of population migration mainly in net inflow is not consistent with it. It is necessary to adjust the population development policy and guide the over-loaded population to transfer to key towns and key development zones.
【作者单位】：河海大学公共管理学院;中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(40901299) 教育部人文社科基金(09YJC790068)~~
【分类号】：C924.2

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