集聚效应、人口流动与城市增长

发布时间：2018-05-24 12:46

本文选题：集聚效应 + 城市增长　；参考：《人口与经济》2014年06期

【摘要】：认识驱动城市增长的经济力量是发挥市场在城镇化与城镇体系优化中决定性作用的基础。本文在集聚效应框架下,构建包含技术外部性与货币外部性影响的单区域和多区域人口迁移模型,使用2000~2011年261个城市的面板数据,通过引入衡量不同来源外部性的集聚因素,检验并确认了集聚效应在中国城市增长中的作用。研究发现:以城市人口规模衡量的技术外部性与城市人口增长率之间存在"U"型曲线关系,但是大多数城市处于曲线的左侧,城市增长率因城市规模增长而下降;以城市人口密度衡量的技术外部性与城市增长率之间表现出的倒"U"型曲线关系在统计上不显著;新经济地理理论所强调的货币外部性是驱动中国城市增长的重要力量;传统人口迁移理论中决定收入预期的工资和失业率对城市增长也有显著影响。
[Abstract]:Understanding the economic power that drives the urban growth is the basis of giving play to the decisive role of the market in the urbanization and the optimization of the urban system. Under the framework of agglomeration effect, this paper constructs a single-region and multi-region population migration model, which includes technological externalities and currency externalities, and uses the panel data of 261 cities from 2000 to 2011 to introduce agglomeration factors to measure the externalities of different sources. The effect of agglomeration on urban growth in China is tested and confirmed. It is found that there is a "U" curve relationship between the technological externality measured by the scale of urban population and the growth rate of urban population, but most cities are on the left side of the curve, and the rate of urban growth decreases because of the growth of urban scale. The relationship between the technological externality measured by the urban population density and the urban growth rate is not statistically significant, and the monetary externality emphasized by the new economic geography theory is an important force driving the growth of Chinese cities. The wage and unemployment rate, which determine income expectation in traditional population migration theory, also has a significant impact on urban growth.
【作者单位】：中国人口与发展研究中心;中国社会科学院农村发展研究所;
【基金】：科技部“十二五”国家科技支撑计划项目“人口与发展数学模型与综合决策支持系统”(2012BAI40B01)
【分类号】：F299.2;C924.2;F224

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