辽宁沿海经济带可持续的人口发展研究

发布时间：2018-05-28 12:31

本文选题：辽宁沿海经济带 + 可持续的人口发展　；参考：《大连理工大学》2010年硕士论文

【摘要】： 人口的发展与资源环境状况、经济社会的发展水平密不可分。可持续的人口发展应该是与资源环境的承载状况和经济社会的发展水平相一致的。本文的研究目的是界定辽宁沿海经济带适宜可持续发展的人口规模和人口分布,保障辽宁沿海经济带发展战略的顺利实施,促进这一地区人口经济社会资源的可持续发展。本文利用主成分分析法,回归分析等计量经济学的方法,结合各地的实际情况,对辽宁沿海经济带的资源环境承载力和经济社会发展水平做了评价,从评价结果来看,可以认定辽宁沿海带属于人口集聚区,未来人口的发展会是一个集聚的过程,并且利用聚类方法对辽宁沿海经济带的人口集聚区进行了细分研究。在此基础上,运用动态承载力理论,结合搜集到的相关数据,本文测算了辽宁沿海经济带目前和2020年的森林承载力、水资源承载力、建设用地承载力和教育承载力,并最终得出这一地区人口发展的上限。最后,根据柯布——道格拉斯生产函数,借助Eviews计量软件,本文建立了辽宁沿海经济带GDP与社会固定资产投资、劳动力数量、科技活动经费支出的回归模型,预测了2020年辽宁沿海经济带的经济发展状况和经济需求人口数量,明确了2020经济发展所需要达到的人口规模。从结果来看,到2020年,辽宁沿海经济带经济发展稳定快速,GDP年均增长率接近或超过10%,相应的人口也会有较快的增长,高于这一地区以往的人口增长率。比较2020年辽宁沿海经济带的综合人口承载力和经济需求人口,可以发现,到2020年辽宁沿海经济带的资源环境及社会状况能够承载快速发展的经济。辽宁沿海经济带的适宜可持续发展的人口规模应该在这一地区的承载力和经济需求人口之间,即337万到431万之间。个别的市区经济需求人口大于承载力人口,经济社会人口发展与资源环境状况之间出现矛盾,这种情况会影响该地区的可持续发展。针对研究结果,本文最后给出了促进人口资源环境经济协调发展的对策建议。
[Abstract]:The development of population and resources and environment, economic and social development level is inseparable. Sustainable population development should be consistent with the carrying capacity of resources and environment and the level of economic and social development. The purpose of this paper is to define the population scale and population distribution of Liaoning coastal economic belt suitable for sustainable development, to ensure the smooth implementation of the development strategy of Liaoning coastal economic belt, and to promote the sustainable development of population, economy and social resources in this area. In this paper, the principal component analysis, regression analysis and other econometric methods are used to evaluate the carrying capacity of resources and environment and the level of economic and social development of Liaoning coastal economic belt. It can be concluded that Liaoning coastal zone belongs to the population agglomeration area, and the future population development will be a process of agglomeration, and the population agglomeration area of Liaoning coastal economic belt is subdivided by cluster method. On this basis, using the theory of dynamic bearing capacity and the relevant data collected, this paper calculates the forest carrying capacity, water resources carrying capacity, construction land carrying capacity and education carrying capacity of Liaoning coastal economic belt at present and 2020. Finally, the upper limit of population development in this area is obtained. Finally, according to Cobb-Douglas production function and with the help of Eviews software, this paper establishes a regression model of GDP and social fixed asset investment, labor force quantity and expenditure of science and technology activities in Liaoning coastal economic belt. The economic development and population demand of Liaoning coastal economic belt in 2020 are forecasted, and the population scale of 2020 economic development is defined. From the result, by 2020, the economic development of Liaoning coastal economic belt is stable and fast, the annual GDP growth rate of Liaoning coastal economic belt is close to or over 10 percent, the corresponding population will also have a relatively fast growth rate, which is higher than the population growth rate of this area in the past. By comparing the comprehensive population carrying capacity and economic demand population of Liaoning coastal economic belt in 2020, it can be found that the resources, environment and social conditions of Liaoning coastal economic belt can carry a rapidly developing economy by 2020. The population size of Liaoning coastal economic belt suitable for sustainable development should be between the carrying capacity of this area and the population of economic needs, that is, between 3.37 million and 4.31 million. The economic demand of individual urban areas is larger than the carrying capacity population, and the contradiction between the economic and social population development and the resource and environmental conditions will affect the sustainable development of the area. Finally, the countermeasures and suggestions to promote the coordinated development of population, resources, environment and economy are given.
【学位授予单位】：大连理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2010
【分类号】：C924.21

【引证文献】