西安国际化大都市建设中人口空间结构变动研究

发布时间：2018-05-29 01:58

本文选题：国际化大都市 + 西安　；参考：《西安工业大学》2011年硕士论文

【摘要】：本文研究的内容是西安国际化大都市建设中的人口空间结构变动问题。通过说明西安人口空间分布的现状,建立西安人口密度模型,分析西安国际化大都市建设期间的人口空间结构变动机制,预测未来十年可能出现的人口空间结构变动趋势和形态。文章的前两章是绪论和研究综述。绪论部分介绍研究背景、研究价值,界定概念和范畴,说明研究方法和技术路线。研究综述对已有人口空间结构相关领域的研究成果和研究方法进行回顾和总结,认为相关研究可以从人口空间分布的预测、研究区域合适空间范围的选择、人口空间信息的挖掘等方面继续深入研究。主体是文章的第三至六章。其中第三章主要通过人口密度和人口重心两个概念,介绍西安辖区内人口空间分布的概况。通过绘制西安市区县人口密度图,表明西安人口密度最大区域是城六区,尤以围绕钟楼的新城区、碑林区、莲湖区人口密度最大。通过GIS9.2软件找到西安主城区内49个街区的几何坐标,计算出西安市人口重心的位置在钟楼东南方向的柏树林街道。2000年到2009年间,西安市人口重心有向东北方向飘移的趋势,主要是由于北部新中心、东北部泸灞新区以及东部工业区近年来的人口增长量快于其他城区。第四章借鉴了地理学对“空间”问题的分析方法,应用GIS软件协助研究,通过对西安城区地图进行以钟楼为圆心的等距离环形切割,计算环带内斑块面积和人口密度,实现了人口数据的空间化处理。对每个环带进行人口密度计算后,得出六种类型的人口密度函数。六种模型的系数和拟合优度都从不同层面透露出西安人口空间分布的特点,即西安人口空间分布目前依然符合单中心人口分布结构,但多中心的人口空间结构正在发育之中。通过比较,最后选择拟合良好、参数最少、解释力最强的Clark模型,作为当下西安人口空间分布特征和城市发展阶段的表征。通过2000与2009年的各类模型拟合参数的变化,也可以对西安未来人口空间变动趋势做出初步判断,即存在明显的人口梯度差下降和人口郊区化趋势,多中心人口分布格局正在发育中。第五章的研究内容是分析西安国际化大都市建设中人口空间结构的变动机制。主要应用凯恩斯就业理论、经济增长理论、中心地理论、偏好与选择等经济理论,应用马克思政治经济学的抽象分析方法,对国际化大都市建设中影响人口空间结构变动的六大因素逐一进行分析。六大影响因素包括人口与就业的增加、居住成本的上升、通勤方式的改变、消费行为的变化、产业布局的改变、以及西安中心地等级提升等,它们分别对未来西安人口空间结构变动的方向、强度、迁移人口构成、以及新的人口空间结构的形成过程发挥作用,改变城市各区的人口年龄构成、行业构成、收入水平、消费能力等。第六章应用综合推理合成法,以第四章和第五章的研究结论为基础,集合模型演绎和逻辑分析的结果,综合分析了西安国际化大都市建设中的人口空间结构变动的演化过程,对西安未来五到十年内的人口空间分布特征和人口空间活动特征进行预测,也可称之为构想或设计,是论文的重要结论。本文研究的长处在于既借鉴了地理学的方法进行数据观察和模型比较,也运用经济学的方法进行因素分析和逻辑推理。因此可以认为,虽然西安市未来人口空间结构在必然性与偶然性的共同作用下,将有各种变动可能性,但在本研究所做的假设前提下,相关研究结论的可信度较大。对模拟未来真实人口空间结构形态的变动过程,进而为政策制定提供人口空间结构方面的参考依据,具有一定的价值。
[Abstract]:The content of this paper is the change of the spatial structure of the population in the construction of Xi'an's international metropolis. By explaining the status of the spatial distribution of the population in Xi'an, establishing the population density model of Xi'an, analyzing the change mechanism of the spatial structure of the population during the construction of the international metropolis in Xi'an, and pretesting the possible demographic changes in the population in the next ten years. Dynamic trends and forms.
The first two chapters of the article are introduction and research review. The introduction introduces the research background, the value, the definition and category, and explains the research method and technical route. The research review reviews and summarizes the research results and methods in the areas related to the population spatial structure, and considers that the related research can be previewed from the spatial distribution of the population. The area of suitable space in the study area is selected, and the mining of population spatial information is further studied.
The main body is the third to six chapters of the article. In third chapters, the population density and the population center of gravity are introduced in the third chapters. The population density distribution in the Xi'an area is introduced. By drawing the population density map of the district and county of Xi'an, the largest area of the population density in Xi'an is the city six, especially in the new city of the bell tower, the forest of Steles and the population of the Lotus Lake District. The geometric coordinates of 49 blocks in the main city of Xi'an are found through the software of GIS9.2. It is calculated that the center of gravity of the population of Xi'an is in the south of the bell tower in the southeast of the cypress forest street from.2000 to 2009. The population gravity center of Xi'an has a tendency to drift north-east, mainly from the north new center, the Northeast Luba new area and the East. The population growth in the industrial area is faster than that in other urban areas in recent years.
The fourth chapter draws on the analysis method of geography to the "space" problem, and uses GIS software to help the research. Through the circular cutting with the bell tower as the center of the center of the bell tower, the area of patch and population density in the belt are calculated, and the spatial distribution of population data is realized. After the calculation of population density for each belt, the population density is calculated. There are six types of population density function. The coefficients and goodness of fit of the six models reveal the characteristics of the spatial distribution of Xi'an population from different levels. That is, the spatial distribution of the population in Xi'an still conforms to the single center population distribution structure, but the spatial structure of the multi center population is being bred. The Clark model with the least parameter and the strongest explanatory power is used as the characterization of the spatial distribution of Xi'an population and the development stage of the city. Through the change of the fitting parameters of various models in 2000 and 2009, it can also make a preliminary judgement on the future trend of the population spatial change in Xi'an, namely, the decline of the population gradient and the suburbanization of population. Trend, multi center population distribution pattern is developing.
The fifth chapter is to analyze the change mechanism of the spatial structure of the population in the construction of Xi'an's international metropolis. It mainly applies Keynes's employment theory, economic growth theory, central ground theory, preference and choice and other economic theories, and applies the abstract analysis method of Marx's political economy to influence the population space in the construction of international metropolis. The six factors of the inter structural changes are analyzed one by one. The six major factors include the increase in population and employment, the rise in the living cost, the change of the commuter mode, the change in the consumption behavior, the change of the industrial layout, and the upgrading of the Xi'an central level, which are respectively the direction, intensity and migration of the changes in the spatial structure of the population in Xi'an, respectively. The composition of the population, as well as the formation of a new population space structure, plays a role in changing the age composition of the population, the composition of the industry, the level of income, and the consumption capacity of the urban areas.
The sixth chapter, based on the results of the fourth and fifth chapters, combines the results of the fourth and the fifth chapters, and analyzes the evolution process of the changes in the spatial structure of the population in the construction of the Xi'an international metropolis, and the spatial distribution characteristics and the population space activities of the population in the next five to ten years in the next five to ten years. Feature prediction is also an important conclusion of the paper.
The advantages of this study are not only using geographical methods for data observation and model comparison, but also using economic methods for factor analysis and logical reasoning. Therefore, it can be considered that the future population spatial structure of Xi'an will have various possibilities under the joint action of inevitability and contingency, but in this research institute On the premise of the hypothesis, the reliability of the related research conclusions is greater. It is of certain value to simulate the change process of the spatial structure form of the real population in the future, and then provide the reference basis for the policy formulation of the population spatial structure.
【学位授予单位】：西安工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2011
【分类号】：C922.2

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