不同生育政策对湖南省人口发展趋势影响的预测研究

发布时间：2018-05-30 15:16

本文选题：生育政策 + 湖南省　；参考：《湖南师范大学》2011年硕士论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来,湖南省人口再生产类型有了历史性的转变,妇女总和生育率低于更替水平,进入了低生育水平时期。但是,湖南省人口基数过大的实情没有改变。由于人口是社会经济活动的基础和主体,人口数量既是衡量经济发展的总分母,又是估量社会问题的总乘数,所以有必要将人口问题上升到人口发展战略上来认识,要对人口的发展予以分析,对人口数量加以预测。只有在对人口进行合理预测的基础上,才能比较准确地把握未来人口发展趋势,从而采取有效措施积极应对将要出现的新情况和新问题,统筹人口与经济社会的协调发展和可持续发展。本研究从人口适度理论视角出发,以HNWIS数据、第五次人口普查资料、湖南省人口与计划生育委员会开展的一次新婚夫妇中独生子女婚育情况抽样调查资料数据为基础,把湖南省人口放在不同生育政策条件下,采用年龄移算法,借助湖南省人口管理信息系统,对湖南省未来人口发展趋势进行预测。本文内容分为四大部分：第一部分为本文的研究背景、理论视角、国内外研究概况以及研究内容等；第二部分为湖南省人口发展状况及现行生育政策的概括,阐述湖南省人口的增长经历了三个增长高峰期和一个负增长期及一个低增长期以及湖南省现行生育政策实行的是“一孩半”政策；第三部分是对湖南省人口发展趋势的预测,该部分是本研究的重点,主要是对出生人口和总人口的预测结果进行分析；第四部分作出结论并提出了相应的对策建议。研究结果表明：实行“普遍生二孩”政策对湖南省人口发展趋势的影响较大,所以湖南省应暂时不考虑“普遍生二孩”政策,而由“双独”生育政策过渡为“单独”生育政策。选择“单独”政策,要注意选好政策调整的时机,避开人口生育高峰。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, Hunan Province population reproduction type has a historical change, women's total fertility rate is lower than the replacement level, entered the low fertility level period. But the fact that Hunan's population base is too large has not changed. Because population is the basis and main body of social and economic activities, population quantity is not only the total denominator to measure economic development, but also the total multiplier to estimate social problems, so it is necessary to raise the population problem to the strategy of population development. It is necessary to analyze the development of the population and forecast the number of the population. Only on the basis of reasonable population prediction, can we grasp the future population development trend more accurately and take effective measures to deal positively with the new situation and problems that will arise, Coordinate population and economic and social development and sustainable development. From the perspective of population moderation theory, this study is based on the HNWIS data, the fifth census data, and the sample survey data of the one-child marriage and childbearing of newlyweds carried out by Hunan Provincial population and Family Planning Commission. This paper puts the population of Hunan Province under different conditions of fertility policy, adopts the age shift algorithm, and forecasts the future population development trend of Hunan Province with the help of the population Management Information system of Hunan Province. The content of this paper is divided into four parts: the first part is the research background, the theoretical perspective, the domestic and foreign research situation and the research content, the second part is the summary of Hunan province population development and current fertility policy. This paper expounds that the population growth of Hunan Province has experienced three peak periods of growth, one period of negative growth and one period of low growth, and that the current fertility policy of Hunan Province implements the policy of "one child and one half"; the third part is the forecast of the population development trend of Hunan Province. This part is the focus of this study, mainly the analysis of the birth population and the total population forecast results; the fourth part draws a conclusion and puts forward the corresponding countermeasures. The results show that the implementation of the policy of "universal birth and two children" has a great influence on the population development trend of Hunan Province, so Hunan Province should not consider the policy of "universal birth of two children" for the time being, but transition from "double independence" policy to "separate" policy. To choose a "separate" policy, we should pay attention to the timing of policy adjustment to avoid the population fertility peak.
【学位授予单位】：湖南师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2011
【分类号】：C924.21

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