人口世代更迭与资本红利——中国储蓄率的倒U型之谜

发布时间：2018-05-30 22:24

本文选题：出生低谷 + 资本红利　；参考：《国际金融研究》2017年04期

【摘要】：在出生高峰世代和出生低谷世代依次进入劳动力市场的2000-2030年间,储蓄率路径呈现出类似1980-2010年间历年出生人数所呈现出的先上升后下降的倒U型特征,资本红利滞后、尾随且依附人口红利。2015年之后,随着95后和00后出生低谷一代陆续进入劳动力市场,储蓄率呈现出类似1995年之后出生人数所呈现出的断崖式下降特征,且人力资本的提高无法改变这一趋势,伴随着人口红利的急剧消失,资本红利也加速消失。最后,考察了堵住劳动力出口的延迟退休方案对储蓄率的影响,模拟发现,无论哪种延迟退休方案,都改变不了储蓄率下降的趋势,但是延迟退休可以降低储蓄率下降的幅度,延缓资本红利消失的速度,进而达到为实现两个百年目标保驾护航和提高全要素生产率赢得时间的目的。
[Abstract]:Between 2000 and 2030, when the peak generation and the trough generation entered the labor market successively, the savings rate path showed the inverted U-shaped characteristics of the number of births in 1980-2010, which increased first and then decreased, and the capital dividend lagged behind. Follow and depend on the demographic dividend. After 2015, as the post-95 and post-00 nadir began to enter the labour market, the savings rate showed a precipitous decline similar to that of post-1995 births. And the increase of human capital can not change this trend, along with the rapid disappearance of the demographic dividend, the capital dividend is also accelerated to disappear. Finally, the effects of delayed retirement schemes blocking labor export on savings rate are investigated. The simulation results show that no matter what kind of delayed retirement plan, it can not change the downward trend of savings rate, but delay retirement can reduce the extent of savings rate decline. To delay the disappearance of capital dividend, and then to achieve the goal of two hundred years to guarantee the escort and improve the total factor productivity to win time.
【作者单位】：中国农业大学经济管理学院;暨南大学经济学院;上海财经大学财经研究所、上海市金融信息技术研究重点实验室;
【基金】：国家社科基金重大项目“新常态下建立多点支撑的消费增长格局研究”(15ZDA013) 上海市浦江人才计划“人口老龄化对我国教育投资的影响研究”(16PJC034) 2013年教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划(NCET-13-0891) 广东省哲学社会科学规划项目“中国高投资低消费的原因及对策研究”(GD14XLJ03)资助
【分类号】：F832.22;C924.2

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