1990年代末人口流动对生育率的影响研究

发布时间：2018-06-04 02:53

本文选题：流动人口 + 生育率水平　；参考：《南京财经大学》2010年硕士论文

【摘要】：众所周知,我国在20世纪末完成了生育率的转变,步入了低生育率水平的后生育转变时期。许多研究表明,我国生育率的转变主要归功于我国经济社会水平的发展和生育控制的双重作用,经济社会因素不仅对生育水平产生直接作用,而且还通过影响生育控制因素进而影响生育水平。与此同时,随着我国城乡二元结构的弱化和市场经济的发展,大量的农村剩余劳动力从农村流向城市,我国的流动人口规模急剧扩张。人口流动作为一种社会变动过程,不仅包括人口在地理单元间的流动,还包含了由此所导致的社会经济结构等诸多方面发生的变化。流动引起人们社会地位方面的变化,终将引起其生育行为的变化。另外,人口流动加速了社会经济的发展,从而加快了经济变量、社会变量影响生育行为的历程。研究表明,我国流动人口的生育率水平低于其流出地的生育率水平,对其流出地的生育率水平存在下拉作用。从我国“生育率的空间差异”的视角,研究人口流动的特征对生育率的影响方式和程度,对当前我国人口的合理流动和生育率的稳定都有着现实的指导意义。根据现有的生育率理论和我国生育率转变的实际,文章选取了5个表示流动人口特征的因素和3个表示生育控制的因素,构建了我国流动人口对生育水平影响的分析框架模型。由于第五次人口普查中有关流动人口特征的数据是基于迁入地的调查数据,首先通过流动人口的迁移矩阵反推出基于流出地的迁移矩阵,进而以此为权重计算得到流出人口的人口特征。其次,由于所选取的指标之间存在不同程度的相关性,通过因子分析“降维”把多个指标分别综合得到代表流动人口因素和生育控制因素的综合指标,并计算出各省市的指标得分。然后,根据所构建的分析模型,运用多元线性回归分析和多因素综合路径分析的思想,得到人口流动因素和生育控制因素对生育水平的直接影响以及人口流动因素所发挥的间接影响。结果表明,20世纪90年代末流动人口的频繁流动对生育水平的下降有着显著的影响,其影响程度大于同期的生育控制因素的影响。最后,运用结构方程理论,通过AMOS软件计算出各个具体的流动人口特征因素对生育率水平下降的影响程度。结论发现,在诸多流动人口特征因素中,流动人口流动率对生育率变动的影响最为显著,其次是流动人口收入水平和流动人口中从事第二三产业的比重。最后在对结论进行归纳之后,从人口流动和生育政策两方面提出了建议。
[Abstract]:As we all know, China completed the fertility transition at the end of the 20th century and entered the post-fertility transition period of low fertility level. Many studies have shown that the transformation of the fertility rate in China is mainly due to the dual functions of the development of our country's economic and social level and fertility control, and that economic and social factors not only have a direct effect on the fertility level. It also affects fertility level by influencing fertility control factors. At the same time, with the weakening of urban-rural dual structure and the development of market economy, a large number of rural surplus labor flow from rural areas to cities, and the scale of floating population in China expands rapidly. As a process of social change, population mobility includes not only the movement of population among geographical units, but also the changes in social and economic structure. Mobility causes changes in people's social status and will eventually lead to changes in their reproductive behavior. In addition, population mobility accelerates the development of social economy, thus accelerates the process of economic variables, social variables affecting fertility behavior. The results show that the fertility level of floating population in China is lower than that of the outflow area, and there is a pull-down effect on the fertility level in the outflow area. From the perspective of "spatial difference of fertility" in China, it is of practical significance to study the influence of the characteristics of population mobility on fertility, which is of practical significance to the rational flow of population and the stability of fertility in China. According to the existing fertility theory and the reality of fertility transformation in China, this paper selects five factors representing the characteristics of floating population and three factors for fertility control, and constructs an analytical framework model of the impact of floating population on fertility level in China. Because the data on the characteristics of the floating population in the fifth census are based on the survey data of the place of migration, the migration matrix based on the outflow place is first derived through the migration matrix of the floating population. Then the population characteristics of the outflow population are calculated by using this as the weight. Secondly, because of the different degree of correlation between the selected indicators, through factor analysis "dimension reduction", we can get the comprehensive indicators representing the floating population factors and fertility control factors respectively. And calculate the index score of each province and city. Then, according to the analysis model, the idea of multivariate linear regression analysis and multi-factor comprehensive path analysis is used. The direct influence of population mobility factors and fertility control factors on fertility level and the indirect influence of population mobility factors are obtained. The results show that the frequent flow of floating population in the late 1990s has a significant effect on the decline of fertility level, and its influence degree is greater than that of fertility control factors in the same period. Finally, by using structural equation theory and AMOS software, the influence of specific characteristics of floating population on the decline of fertility level is calculated. The conclusion is that among the characteristics of the floating population, the floating population mobility rate has the most significant influence on the fertility rate, followed by the income level of the floating population and the proportion of the floating population engaged in the second and third industries. Finally, the conclusion is summarized and some suggestions are put forward from two aspects: population mobility and fertility policy.
【学位授予单位】：南京财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2010
【分类号】：C924.2

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