山东省农村人口老龄化对农业经济的影响研究

发布时间：2018-06-06 03:45

本文选题：山东省 + 农村　；参考：《山东大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：人口老龄化是人口年龄结构趋向于老龄的过程,是随着年轻人口数量减少、年长人口数量增加而导致的老年人口在整个社会人口中所占的比例不断增长的动态过程。总的来说,人口老龄化形成的原因有两个：一是随着我国经济的日益发展,以及计划生育的有效实施,出生率和死亡率均大幅度下降,老年人口数在总人数的比重日益增加；二是随着城市化的发展,农村优质劳动力大规模向城市转移,青壮年的迁移使得迁出地剩余的大部分是老年人与未成年人,加剧了农村人口的老龄化程度。农业作为国民经济的重要基础性生产部门和劳动力资源需求部门,在山东省国民经济中占有重要地位,而农村人口快速老龄化势必会影响到农业生产劳动力的供给,对山东省社会经济的发展将会产生深刻的影响。随着工业化和城镇化步伐的加快,大量农村青壮年劳动力流入城镇,留守老人成为农村农业生产的主力军,在农业机械化程度低下的情况下,必然影响当地农业发展。本文在研究山东省农村人口老龄化对农业经济的影响时,从两个不同的角度展开。一是从研究我国人口年龄结构老龄化的演变过程入手；二是研究山东省农村人口老龄化对农业经济的影响,从理论和实证进行全面分析。进行理论分析时,结合相关的经济增长理论,分短期影响和长期影响两个维度进行；实证分析时,利用柯布—道格拉期生产函数,检验人口老龄化对农业经济的影响程度。本篇论文的主要内容。第一章是引言,包括本篇论文的研究背景、研究目的、研究意义、研究思路与研究内容,以及研究可能的创新点和不足之处。第二章是理论基础与文献综述。理论基础是人口因素与经济增长的理论回顾,文献综述包括农业经济的相关文献综述、人口老龄化与经济增长的相关文献综述。第三章分析山东省人口老龄化的现状及成因。本章从四个方面来分析,首先是人口老龄化的概念的界定,其次介绍我国人口老龄化的动态演变过程,第三分析山东省农村人口老龄化的现状,接下来探究山东省农村人口老龄化的成因,最后总结山东省农村人口老龄化的特点。第四章是山东省农村人口老龄化对农业经济的影响的规范分析。本章包括以下内容：山东省农业生产的所处的发展阶段及现阶段的特点,山东省农村人口老龄化对农业经济的短期影响,山东省人口老龄化对农业经济的长期影响。第五章是山东省农村人口老龄化对农业经济的影响的实证分析。本章主要对老龄化对农业生产总值的影响做实证分析,从选取模型着手,设定变量,搜集数据,再根据实证结果分析具体含义。第六章是本文的结束,包括本文的研究结论和对山东省农业经济进一步发展的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Population aging is a process in which the age structure of the population tends to be aging. It is a dynamic process in which the proportion of the elderly population in the whole social population increases with the decrease of the number of the young population and the increase of the number of the elderly population. In general, there are two reasons for the aging of the population: first, with the development of our economy and the effective implementation of family planning, the birth rate and death rate have all dropped by a large margin, and the proportion of the elderly population in the total number of people is increasing day by day; Second, with the development of urbanization, the high quality rural labor force is transferred to the city on a large scale, and the migration of the young and middle-aged makes the majority of the remaining migrants to be the elderly and minors, which intensifies the aging degree of the rural population. Agriculture, as an important basic production department and labor resource demand department of the national economy, occupies an important position in the national economy of Shandong Province. However, the rapid aging of the rural population will inevitably affect the supply of agricultural production labor. The social and economic development of Shandong Province will have a profound impact. With the acceleration of industrialization and urbanization, a large number of young and middle-aged rural labor force flows into cities and towns, leaving the elderly to become the main force of rural agricultural production, in the case of low degree of agricultural mechanization, it will inevitably affect the development of local agriculture. This paper studies the impact of rural population aging on agricultural economy in Shandong Province from two different angles. The first is to study the evolution process of the aging of population age structure in China, the other is to study the impact of the aging of rural population on the agricultural economy in Shandong Province, and make a comprehensive analysis from theory and practice. In theoretical analysis, combined with the relevant economic growth theory, it is divided into two dimensions: short-term impact and long-term impact. In the empirical analysis, the impact of population aging on agricultural economy is tested by using the production function of Cobb-Dogra period. The main content of this paper. The first chapter is the introduction, including the research background, research purpose, research significance, research ideas and research content, as well as the possible innovations and deficiencies. The second chapter is the theoretical basis and literature review. The theoretical basis is the review of population factors and economic growth. The literature review includes the literature review of agricultural economy and the literature review of population aging and economic growth. The third chapter analyzes the current situation and causes of population aging in Shandong Province. This chapter analyzes from four aspects: firstly, the definition of the concept of population aging, secondly, introduces the dynamic evolution process of population aging in China, and third, analyzes the current situation of rural population aging in Shandong Province. Then it explores the causes of the aging of rural population in Shandong Province, and finally summarizes the characteristics of the aging of rural population in Shandong Province. Chapter four is the normative analysis of the impact of rural population aging on agricultural economy in Shandong Province. This chapter includes the following contents: the development stage and characteristics of agricultural production in Shandong Province, the short-term impact of rural population aging on agricultural economy in Shandong Province, and the long-term impact of population aging on agricultural economy in Shandong Province. The fifth chapter is the empirical analysis of the impact of rural population aging on agricultural economy in Shandong Province. This chapter makes an empirical analysis on the impact of aging on agricultural GDP, starting with the selection of models, setting variables, collecting data, and then analyzing the specific meaning according to the empirical results. The sixth chapter is the conclusion of this paper, including the conclusions and policy recommendations for the further development of agricultural economy in Shandong Province.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F323.6;F327;C924.24

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