人口结构变迁与经常账目失衡

发布时间：2018-06-06 05:46

本文选题：人口结构 + 经常账目　；参考：《南方经济》2013年11期

【摘要】：世界范围内持续多年的经常账目失衡并不鲜见,以往研究多关注汇率和净出口的关系,而忽视了经常账目余额的另外一种属性——本国在外国的储蓄。本文尝试从人口结构变迁的角度对这一问题给出新的解释。本文通过构建包括幼年抚养比和老年抚养比的世代交替模型,理论分析和预测了:幼年抚养比上升会降低储蓄率、增加投资率,从而减少经常账目余额;而老年抚养比下降会提高储蓄率,增加经常账目余额;试图填补人口结构对经常账目影响的理论空白。接下来,本文利用1990年至2011年全球110个国家的强平衡面板数据进行实证分析,在静态和动态模型下均得到了与理论预测相一致的稳健结果。根据实证结果进行定量分析,本文发现中国抚养比的变化可以解释1990年至2007年间经常账目余额占GDP比重16.6%的变动。
[Abstract]:Years of current account imbalances around the world are not uncommon. Previous studies have focused more on the relationship between exchange rates and net exports, ignoring another attribute of the current account balance-domestic savings in foreign countries. This paper attempts to give a new explanation of this problem from the point of view of demographic change. By constructing the intergenerational model including infant dependency ratio and old dependency ratio, this paper theoretically analyzes and predicts that the increase of infant dependency ratio will reduce the savings rate and increase the investment rate, thus reducing the current account balance; A decline in the old-age dependency ratio increases the savings rate and current account balances, and attempts to fill a theoretical gap in the impact of the demographic structure on the current account. Then, using the strong balance panel data of 110 countries from 1990 to 2011, the robust results are obtained under both static and dynamic models. Based on the quantitative analysis of empirical results, this paper finds that the variation of dependency ratio in China can explain the 16.6% change of current account balance in GDP from 1990 to 2007.
【作者单位】：北京大学国家发展研究院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金管理学部重点项目“关于改善老龄健康保障机制和科学管理效益的研究(项目批准号:71233001)”的资助
【分类号】：C924.2;F832.6

【参考文献】