信阳城市人口—城区用地异速生长分析

发布时间：2018-06-15 12:38

本文选题：异速生长 + 异速标度　；参考：《地理科学进展》2014年08期

【摘要】：城市人口规模和用地面积随着时间的改变过程理论上服从异速生长定律,即在一定时空范围内表现为幂指数关系,并且标度指数小于1。但由于种种原因,中国的统计数据大多不满足纵向异速标度关系,或者标度指数严重异常。为深入研究这一问题,借助最小二乘法和对数线性回归分析技术,基于信阳的人口普查数据和城市用地现状图资料,开展城市人口和城市用地面积的标度分析,发现城市生长长期服从纵向异速生长定律,可用幂函数描绘,并且标度指数(约为0.86)接近于理论预期值(0.85)。然而,由于近年的"造城运动",这种标度关系遭到破坏,城市人—地关系出现混乱。因此,揭示城市演化规律的前提是数据质量的保证,而人文系统的规律也会因为人为的因素而暂时破坏。本文提供了一个城市纵向异速生长及其标度破坏的简明案例,并给出了估计和预测信阳城市人口和用地的数学模型,其计算结果可以作为了解同类城市人—地关系的演化进程和未来趋势的重要参考。
[Abstract]:The changing process of urban population size and land area with time theoretically obeys the law of isokinetic growth, that is, in a certain time and space range, the relation of power exponent is shown, and the scale index is less than 1. However, for various reasons, most of the statistical data in China do not satisfy the longitudinal isokinetic scale relationship or the scale index is seriously abnormal. In order to study this problem deeply, by means of least square method and logarithmic linear regression analysis technique, the scale analysis of urban population and urban land area is carried out based on the census data of Xinyang and the data of present situation map of urban land use. It is found that the law of growth of urban growth for a long time from longitudinal isokinetic growth can be described by power function, and the scale index (about 0.86) is close to the theoretical expected value of 0.85. However, due to the "city building movement" in recent years, the scale relationship has been destroyed, and the relationship between people and land in cities has been chaotic. Therefore, the premise of revealing the law of urban evolution is the guarantee of data quality, and the law of human system will be destroyed temporarily because of human factors. In this paper, a simple case of longitudinal isokinetic growth and its scale damage is presented, and a mathematical model for estimating and predicting the urban population and land use in Xinyang is given. The results can be used as an important reference for understanding the evolution process and future trend of the human-land relationship in the same cities.
【作者单位】：北京大学城市与环境学院城市与经济地理系;中国城市规划设计研究院城乡规划研究室;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41171129)
【分类号】：C924.24

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